DERMOT STOKES,
Sir, - Dr Michael Loftus (July 31st) cites the report of the Strategic Task Force on Alcohol, and its "revelation that alcohol consumption has risen by an extraordinary 41 per cent" between 1983 and 1999".
He also notes that decreases were recorded in 10 other EU member states and that consumption was static in three others.
This claim is based on a calculation of the total amount of alcohol consumed divided by the population of the country. This is a useful index of consumption, but tells us nothing of social change. To do that, we must identify key variables that might explain such change. In this case, the key variables are:
1. The patterns of drinking across different age-groups in the population.
2. Our demographic structure and, for purposes of comparison, those of other European countries, and in particular the proportion of people aged 18-24 and 25-34.
As regards the first of these, the Strategic Task Force report cites the 1999 national lifestyle survey SLAN. It is quite clear from this that 18- to 24-year-olds drink considerably more, and more dangerously, than those in older age groups.
Older age groups progressively drink less, and more moderately. These findings are consistent with international research, for example the UK's General Household Survey, 1998. It is surprising that the Strategic Task Force took no account of this.
Over the past decade and a half, a massive population bulge has moved into this heavy drinking age range. While we will not know exactly how large this age group is as a proportion of the population until the details of the recent census are available, we already know that the proportion of the population in the 18-34 range is vastly higher here than in other countries in Europe.
Furthermore, in most other EU member-states the population is ageing, and 18-34s are declining as a proportion of the total.
There may be other factors at work, but of themselves, this combination of consumption patterns and demographic factors goes a long way towards explaining why alcohol consumption has risen dramatically here and declined elsewhere.
Dr Loftus might take some comfort from the fact that our population bulge is now beginning to leave the heavy-drinking age range. We know from the EU study "The Social Situation in the European Union 2001" that the number of 15- to 24-year-olds will continue to fall (by 17 per cent) between 2000 and 2015 and that over-50s will double in number.
That should lead to a move from the dangerous, heavy drinking and bingeing pattern characteristic of the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups towards the safer, regular and moderate drinking characteristic of an older population. - Yours, etc.,
DERMOT STOKES, Marlborough Road, Dublin 4.