IN LIBYAN rebel claims in recent days that Gadafy’s beleaguered regime may now be close to a tipping point there are elements of both propaganda and clutching at straws. Reports of divisions in rebel ranks following the mysterious killing of eastern commander Gen Abdul Younis, and the perception that gains on the ground have been patchy and often quickly reversed are being countered with a new, perhaps forced, optimism.
The road to Tripoli is opening up. . . just one more heave. The newer confidence is also making rebels less willing to talk of negotiations with the regime.
In truth, however, the seizure of the strategically crucial town of Zawiyah, 50 kilometres west of Tripoli is an important moment; the closest that the rebels have come to the capital. Though Gadafy loyalists reportedly still control the town’s oil refinery, rebels are close to cutting off the capital’s supply lines. Fighters have also apparently seized the town of Gharyan in the Nafusah Mountain region, straddling another key supply line. It connects Tripoli with Algeria and southern Libya.
And the apparent, though unconfirmed, defection of Gadafy’s deputy security chief Nassr al-Mabrouk Abdullah is a significant sign of the crumbling confidence of at least part of the regime. He landed in Cairo in a private plane on Monday with nine family members, though he has so far refused to comment on his intentions other than to suggest he is on “holiday”.
But a push into Tripoli is a challenge of an altogether different order. Its narrow streets will be easy to defend, the fight prolonged and bloody, not least because, reports suggest, Gadafy still has considerable support in the city. The Nato air support which has been so crucial to the rebel gains will be of relatively little use. And so, despite rhetoric about pushing on to the capital, the likelihood is that the rebels will be reluctant to engage in a full onslaught, preferring to encircle and choke the city in the hope the government will collapse or an uprising in the city can be provoked.
A prolonged siege will also require an extension of the Nato mandate for air support, due to be renewed in September. It is to be hoped this will be forthcoming.
Faced with a new phase in the campaign against him,Gadafy’s options are narrowing. It must be clear to him now his chances of victory are nil – his choice is to leave by agreement or eventually be overthrown. Pressure from international friends of Libya must now be increased to offer the prospect of meaningful talks about an agreed transition.