Eleven years ago, when Britain's Liberal Party last chose a leader, the contest was between Paddy Ashdown (who won 70 per cent of the vote) and Alan Beith. There were more than a few political commentators at the time who wondered if the Liberal Party had any meaningful future in Westminster and whether Mr Ashdown had sufficient talents to make the Liberals matter once more. As he passes on the leadership today, Mr Ashdown can take comfort in the transformation he has wrought. The Liberal Democrat Party, so named in 1988 when it merged with most of the Social Democrats, now has 5,000 councillors, 10 MEPs, is sharing power in Scotland and, most importantly, has 46 MPs at Westminster. Not since the 1920s, has there been such a large third-party force.
Mr Ashdown's legacy is not all positive. The party is no nearer to getting electoral reform (i.e. PR for Westminster elections) despite Mr Ashdown's particularly close relationship with Mr Tony Blair. Liberal Democrats sit on a cabinet committee discussing constitutional reform, which is an achievement in itself, but it is getting nowhere; Mr Blair's Cabinet colleagues do not display anything like his enthusiasm for PR or even for greater co-operation with the Liberal Democrats.
It is this co-operation with Labour, known as the Project, which has been at the heart of the contest to replace Mr Ashdown. Liberal Democrats are divided on the merits of the Project. To its supporters, it offers the hope of helping to shape government policy and they would seek to have the remit of the Cabinet committee widened. To the doubters, it will achieve little and might undermine Liberal Democrat distinctiveness in the eyes of the voters.
None of the candidates for the leadership have spoken strongly in favour of continued co-operation. There is little doubt that Charles Kennedy, the shortodds favourite to win, would be the most disposed to continuing the status quo but regardless of who wins, there will be no extension of the co-operation because no amount of it will deliver a timetable for electoral reform in this parliament, never mind a referendum.
Mr Kennedy has detractors. They say he is laid back, little interested in policy and somewhat keen on celebrity status. There are elements of truth in the criticisms but it cannot be denied that he is eloquent - particularly good on television, where it is vital - erudite and affable. The party hierarchy supports him although Mr Ashdown's backing came late and limp. Mr Kennedy's main rival is Simon Hughes, one of the strongest critics of co-operation with Labour. Mr Hughes has a record of radicalism which endears him to the rank and file who, as in other parties, can react negatively to the preferred candidate of the party machine. Mr Kennedy is hoping to win on the first count by pulling in 50 per cent of the first preference votes. Unless there was a swing in the voters' mood late last week, he is unlikely to come through so early. And if Mr Kennedy misses the 50 per cent mark by much, the second preferences may swing towards Mr Hughes. Whoever wins will face an uphill task in pulling away from the centre, where Labour reigns supreme, and establishing himself quickly on voters' minds. Much of the Liberal Democrat support in the polls stems from Mr Ashdown's personal popularity. From today, that support is at great risk.