Political developments have moved at a breakneck pace as the last year of the old millennium winds down. There is a great deal to celebrate. The last bricks in the institutional structures envisaged by the Belfast Agreement were put into place earlier this month, thereby creating a Northern Assembly and power-sharing executive; a North/South Ministerial Council; North/South implementation bodies; a British/Irish Council and a British/Irish Intergovernmental Conference.
Co-operation and consent are the key concepts underpinning these institutions as the people of the island look to the future and pay less attention to the wrongs of the past. We have embarked on a new political adventure. Sinn Fein ministers hold office in Belfast as of right and because of the political courage and leadership of Mr David Trimble of the Ulster Unionist Party, who dropped his party's precondition on IRA arms decommissioning so as to facilitate the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement.
There is quiet confidence in Government circles and within the UUP and the SDLP that the IRA will now co-operate with General John de Chastelain of the Independent International Decommissioning Commission and put weapons beyond use in advance of the next meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council, in February. The alternative is unthinkable.
The road to success was crowded with impediments and, at times, it was hard to retain faith in the process. Although the electorate - North and South - had voted overwhelmingly in favour of the terms of the Belfast Agreement, there was determined political and paramilitary resistance to its provisions. The twin stumbling blocks of executive formation and arms decommissioning thwarted the best efforts of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, to make progress on two separate occasions, in March and June.
It then took the political genius of Senator George Mitchell to bring the parties together in an extensive review. What emerged was a carefully choreographed step-by-step movement by unionists and republicans leading to the formation of an Executive, the appointment of an IRA interlocutor to treat with General de Chastelain and the establishment of the new structures. Now that they are in place, the old IRA argument that decommissioning is the equivalent of surrender and defeat is exposed as a nonsense. What defeated organisation ever had its ministers in government?
In spite of progress made, there is a long way to go and major obstacles lie ahead. But the institutions have been endorsed by large majorities in both communities; years of communal violence and political education have intervened and extremists representing paramilitary organisations are inside, rather than outside, the door. Although dissident republican groups are opposed to any such accommodation they have been subjected to intensive security surveillance and the Taoiseach has warned that the Government will deal harshly with violent opposition.
Success in the North, and the implementation of the Patten report on policing, should give the Coalition Government, and Fianna Fail in particular, a boost in the opinion polls in the coming year. It desperately needs to shore up public confidence in the aftermath of a misjudged December Budget, produced by the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, but agreed in advance by the Taoiseach and by the Tanaiste, Ms Harney. Public and political outcry was so great over its lack of balance, particularly as it affected the low paid and stay-at-home wives, that Mr McCreevy was forced to change its terms. Further alterations may follow, arising from negotiations with the ICTU on a new national wage agreement.
It was a roller-coaster year, with the Coalition partners threatening to go their separate ways on a number of occasions. As with the North, however, there was a significant improvement in inter-party relations as the year drew to a close. The appointment of Mr Michael McDowell as Attorney General and developments in the Budget and in the North drew the parties closer. The work of the Flood and Moriarty tribunals - dealing with planning scandals and the financial affairs of Mr Charles Haughey - generated most of the early friction when Ms Harney felt Mr Ahern had withheld information from her and from the Dail. But it was the Sheedy case, which forced the resignation of two judges and nearly caused a Constitutional crisis, that brought the Government closest to dissolution. Mr Ahern - as on a number of other occasions - bent to the requirements of the moment and the Government survived.
The local elections in June went some way towards stabilising the Government. Fianna Fail did better than expected, while the Progressive Democrats remained under pressure. The main opposition parties - Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party - had hoped to launch their general election campaigns on the basis of strong local authority results. But they found no traction. In fact, the Labour Party lost ground and morale only recovered with a win in the Dublin South Central by-election. The main winner in the local elections was Sinn Fein, which trebled the number of its council seats to 21. Elsewhere, in the European Parliament elections, Fianna Fail lost a seat to the Independent candidate, Dana Rosemary Scallon. The strength of the other parties was unchanged.
Through it all, the economy powered ahead, growing by about eight per cent as house prices spiralled. The ESRI predicted growth would average five per cent for the next five years. Unemployment fell towards five per cent as the Government announced details of a seven-year national plan amounting to £40.6 billion and entered talks with the social partners on a new, three-year wage agreement. Skills shortages developed and, while the number of asylum seekers grew, strains emerged within the Government over the treatment of asylum seekers and migrant workers.
In political terms, the year is ending with the Government and opposition parties still seeking a decisive advantage. Fianna Fail is operating under the shadow of the Flood and Moriarty tribunals, but it stands to gain significantly from the implementation of the Belfast Agreement. And while the nature of the December budget probably cost the Coalition parties votes in the short term, when the tax cuts take effect in April that result could be reversed. The opening year of the new millennium should clarify the potential for all-island co-operation while deepening public debate on the social and economic options now available.