Yugoslavia is hurtling towards a hot political autumn with the announcement of elections for local governments, both chambers of the federal parliament and for president - the position currently held by Slobodan Milosevic.
Mr Milosevic appeared on state television to sign the election decree yesterday, finally laying to rest speculation about the timing of the polls, which have loomed over the political calendar in the federation since the beginning of the year. Recent legislation passed in the parliament - dominated by parties in the ruling coalition - has changed the constitution of the federation and the voting system.
These alterations have massively strengthened Mr Milosevic's hand. At the same time, they have dramatically weakened the status of Montenegro, Serbia's sister state within the federation. They have exposed the vulnerability of its pro-Western president, Milo Djukanovic, and effectively force him to choose between returning his territory into the embrace of Mr Milosevic's federation or moving towards independence, which raises the spectre of war.
This election is not only the first in which the country's leader is elected by popular vote instead of by the federal parliament. It also allows him to win by a simple majority, regardless of turnout. This is extremely important in a country where opinion polls have shown a high degree of disillusionment and when a number of opposition politicians are already saying they will boycott the polls.
So, within Serbia in a direct poll, Mr Milosevic is expected to win. There is no single figure to have emerged from the opposition with the credibility and stature to challenge him. The directly-elected presidency is for four years and can be held for two consecutive terms.
This could see Mr Milosevic in power until 2008. A changed voting system in the federal poll dramatically affects the vote for members of the upper house of the parliament, the Chamber of Republics. Previously, separate assemblies in Montenegro and Serbia each selected 20 of the chamber's 40 deputies.
Under the new system, all deputies will be elected by popular vote. There are eight million people in Serbia and 600,000 in Montenegro. So it makes it far easier for Mr Milosevic to push politicians loyal to him.
These changes have led President Djukanovic to announce that Montenegro will not take part in the poll. But exactly how he will achieve this boycott is not clear. His officials have said they would organise an independence referendum should Mr Milosevic force elections on Montenegro's territory.
"Montenegro will undoubtedly not participate in this farce," the parliament's deputy speaker, Mr Predrag Popovic, declared yesterday.
But with a well-equipped corps of the Yugoslav army - directly controlled by Belgrade - in barracks across the country and with a population sharply divided on the issue of independence, Mr Djukanovic has very little room for manoeuvre.
The constitutional changes and the speed of events appear to have caught the international community equally off balance.
London condemns the constitutional changes and is making it clear it does not expect the elections to be free and fair, yet is urging the Serbian opposition and Montenegro to exploit any opportunity to voice its opposition to Mr Milosevic.
Washington is now focused on its forthcoming presidential elections. It will have little will for robust NATO intervention at this time, if another Balkan war threatens.
In local polls, the Serbian opposition has a good chance of holding on to the town halls it won in 1996, but only if it adheres to a united list of candidates. And it will be hard to claim that gains at local level should be taken seriously at home and abroad if federal and presidential results that favour Mr Milosevic are being discredited.
And the Serbian opposition is already split. The largest single non-government party, the Serbian Renewal Movement, says it will boycott the elections. Other opposition groupings have yet to choose a single candidate for president: a tremendous test for the warring egos of their leaders.
Once again, with brilliant timing, President Milosevic appears to have outwitted his opponents at home and abroad. Yugoslavia always has the capacity to surprise; but few in Belgrade this week believed that the forthcoming polls signal the end of the Milosevic era.