A surprising note of optimism emerged from the weekend meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Naples concerning the likelihood of agreeing a new constitutional treaty at next week's summit in Brussels.
Many contentious issues have been resolved. But this leaves the most difficult and fractious ones - principally on the future shape of EU institutions - yet to be agreed in rough and ready last-minute bargaining.
There are justifiable fears that suspicions created by the failure to apply the Stability and Growth Pact rules to France and Germany may affect the willingness to compromise, or reduce the scope of the political ambition required if a satisfactory treaty text is to be agreed.
Much progress has been made in finding consensus on the text of this constitutional treaty. Its mandate was laid down at Brussels two years ago: to simplify the EU treaties, express their constitutional values and interests clearly and accessibly for citizens, and reform its institutions and decision-making in preparation for the EU's biggest enlargement next year.
Most of this was successfully achieved by the Convention on the Future of Europe, drawing in a much wider group of people and political interests than have heretofore been involved in such bargaining. The Convention draft has survived intact for the most part during the negotiations proper between governments under Italy's current EU presidency; it remains a valuable if uneven document whose balance should not be upset by ill-considered last minute compromises.
Significant progress has been made in agreeing new frameworks for EU defence and foreign policy, using "structured co-operation", which would be open to all member-states to approve politically, with voluntary participation. Final details on this and the precise role of an EU foreign minister are within reach, partly to recognise the special position of Ireland and other neutral states. This is a major and necessary achievement in an increasingly uncertain world. Similar progress has been made in agreeing new policies to regulate justice and home affairs. Unanimous voting on taxation, a particular priority for the Government, seems set to stay.
The outstanding contentious issues are overwhelmingly concerned with representation and voting in the EU's institutions. They are bound up with power and influence over its decisions and marked by sharp disagreement between smaller and larger member-states. Possible compromises will involve changing the size of the European Parliament and the Commission and the weighting of votes in the Council of Ministers.
The existing institutions have served the EU members extremely well, allowing them to pool sovereignty, normally based on alliances of large and small states. It is essential that the spirit of this community method be preserved. It would be better to postpone decisions into next year's Irish EU presidency than to breach it opportunistically in the final days of these negotiations.