There was a lot at stake for Mr Tony Blair as he addressed his Labour Party conference in Brighton yesterday. Having decided to continue this summer as party leader after 10 years in the job, seven of them as Prime Minister, he must prepare it for next year's election when he seeks an unprecedented third successive term in office for a Labour government.
Trust in him and his administration has fallen sharply, much of it to do with Iraq. To win again next year he needs to reverse that trend and galvanise party activists and voters with a fresh set of priorities and objectives.
Mr Blair's speech delivered relatively well on these political imperatives, though he certainly did not turn the corner comprehensively. He tackled the issue of trust head on by apologising for the wrong intelligence on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq - but not for the basic decision to go to war and remove Saddam Hussein. "Judgments are not the same as facts", he said, adding that he is as fallible and capable of being wrong as any other human being. Inviting his audience to distinguish between those who see a basic continuity between international terrorism before and after the 9/11 attacks on the United States and those who believe they mark a qualitative change in world affairs involving a fundamental attack on the western way of life, he explained why he opted decisively for the latter account.
He believes this new antagonist must be confronted and removed both militarily and politically, necessitating a close alliance with the United States, a determined effort to bring democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan and to find a durable settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Mr Blair's skills of advocacy were much in evidence here, but they cannot conceal his vulnerability to criticism that he is basically wrong. Events in Iraq and the Middle East will shape this issue over the coming year. Mr Blair faces a possible conference defeat tomorrow on the matter, in a debate that has been tragically personalised by continuing uncertainty over the fate of the kidnapped British citizen, Mr Ken Bigley.
Mr Blair is determined to shift political attention from Iraq to domestic issues. The 10 priorities he put forward are the first draft of an election manifesto covering lower mortgage rates, higher living standards, identity cards, childcare and detailed commitments to build more hospitals and schools and to keep unemployment down. Mr Blair paid tribute to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, for his politically indispensable good management of the British economy, notwithstanding the evident tension between them over the party leadership. Both men need to keep it in harness to avoid divisions within Labour from which only the feeble Conservative opposition would gain.
The indications are that British voters continue to prefer Labour as the more capable governing party despite their loss of trust in it and their disenchantment with Mr Blair's brand of conviction politics.