IN INTRODUCING his emergency budget yesterday, George Osborne said that it was “an unavoidable budget” but added “it is tough but it is fair”. It is indisputably tough but whether or not it is fair will be hotly debated. The youngest chancellor of the exchequer since Lord Randolph Churchill (father of Winston), Mr Osborne spoke with cogency and confidence which is just as well as the fate of the UK economy pretty much hangs on the measures he announced.
In common with many other economies, the UK is faced with a situation where its public finances are seriously out of kilter. Put simply, for every £3 the government raises it is spending £4. Mr Osborne faces a budget deficit of £155 billion which, at over 10 per cent of GDP, is worse than that of Greece but not as bad as Ireland’s.
Blame for the necessity of a draconian budget is being laid at the door of the Labour Party and Gordon Brown in particular. There is some justification in this. The Labour Party last year boosted the economy with higher spending so as to ensure that the economy, already in recession, did not fall into depression. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility endorsed this strategy. But Labour, throughout its period in government, consistently increased government spending to such an extent that now, when the economy is weak and most needs support, the new government has to do the exact opposite and take money out of the economy. The risks of delaying spending cuts, Mr Osborne argues, are far greater than the risks of taking demand out of the economy in the short term.
Mr Osborne may be correct but his critics argue that his tax increases and spending cuts are too harsh and as a consequence growth will be reduced and unemployment will rise. The increase in the VAT rate from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent will lift government revenues by £13 billion a year. Capital gains tax is being increased (but not as much as had been forecast) and a bank levy will raise £2 billion a year.
Retailers in the North will be concerned that the increase in VAT will discourage cross-Border shopping. However, the slide in the value of the euro has already diminished the flow of Southern shoppers and the fact that UK excise duties will remain unchanged suggests that the budget may have little effect. Industry in the North will be decidedly unimpressed by Mr Osborne’s reduction of just 1 per cent in the rate of corporation tax bringing it down to 27 per cent. The Republic’s rate of 12.5 per cent means that it will continue to have a distinct advantage in pitching for foreign investment.
Mr Osborne, prodded by his LibDem partners, has gone some way to ensure that his measures will not affect the less well-off unduly and essential services such as education and health are largely unaffected. It will be an unpopular budget but that is the plan. Savage measures to reduce the deficit may allow for tax cuts closer to the end of the five year fixed-term parliament. Mr Osborne will not be drawing comparisons with Lord Churchill who lasted less than five months in office.