Noel Whelan: Brexit has broken Tory and Labour party loyalty

I have quoted here before the adage from a former boss of mine, the polite version of which goes “sometimes there is so much dirt in the political pipes that in order to clear the blockages either a leadership change or a general election is required”.

Curiously neither of these options is currently available in British politics. As a consequence the party system itself is malfunctioning. Brexit has broken the bonds of party loyalty on both the Conservative and Labour side, and both are now leaking MPs.

Although Theresa May's government has a fragile majority, the support of the Democratic Unionist Party and the Conservative party's fear of going to voters amid Brexit chaos means there will be no election soon.

Notwithstanding the fact that his Brexit stance is at odds with much of his party's new young membership, Corbyn is safe as leader until the next election

A change of Conservative leader is also off the table in the short term. May has recently seen off a no-confidence vote within her parliamentary party. Nobody else wants her job while the Brexit crisis endures.

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At the same time Jeremy Corbyn is immovable as leader of Labour. Ousting him requires a majority in a vote of the party membership. Rebel MPs forced such a vote previously, yet Corbyn emerged even stronger. Notwithstanding the fact that his Brexit stance, and in particular his reluctance to come out for a second referendum, is at odds with much of his party's new young membership, Corbyn is safe as leader until the next election.

Absent the release valve of a general election or a leadership change and the piping of the British party system has wobbled for months. This week it started to burst.

Westminster chamber

The footage from the Westminster chamber on Wednesday of three Conservative MPs crossing the chamber to join eight former Labour MPs who had defected in the previous 48 hours was striking.

It could become one of those oft-replayed clips as an iconic representation of the moment when the British party system framed in the early 20th century finally cracked.

The history books of politics in many countries, including our own, are littered with footnotes about breakaway parties. To the long list of such parties to emerge and fade out in Irish politics has recently been added the name Renua.

There is, of course, a possibility that this new shift in British politics could fizzle out, but there are reasons to believe it will endure.

The contortions necessary to resolve Brexit tosses up everything which tends towards the emergence of a strong middle-ground party

Firstly, the fact that it is a breakaway which has drawn parliamentarians from both main parties is highly significant. This is unprecedented at Westminster, and unusual in international comparative terms.

The only similar precedent in Ireland was the founding of the Progressive Democrats in 1986. Although fronted prominently by former Fianna Fáil minister Dessie O'Malley and former Fianna Fáil backbencher Mary Harney, the event was chaired by Michael McDowell, who had just resigned as a Fine Gael constituency chairman. Former TD Michael Keating, who had also just resigned from Fine Gael, was also at the top table.

The second thing the new entity in British politics has going for it is the fact it has emerged in very tumultuous times. The contortions necessary to resolve the Brexit crisis in the coming week – or the political chaos which will ensue if it is not resolved – tosses up everything in a way which tends towards the emergence of a strong middle-ground moderate party.

Former colleagues

There are dozens of MPs in the two main British parties who will move to join their former colleagues.

Conservative moderates will do so in droves if their party enables or comes close to enabling a no-deal Brexit.

More Labour moderates will also break away to the new grouping in frustration at the party’s incoherent position on Brexit and in anger at the party’s drift towards the hard left.

The biggest hurdle the new grouping will face will be the vagaries of the first-past-the-post electoral system

The advent of social media, and the availability of crowd funding and other direct-contact mechanisms, now make establishing new political movements easier.

The lax nature of electoral funding laws in Britain will also assist in the emergence of a new party. There is no maximum limit on individual donations in British politics, and already the new Independent Group looks likely to enjoy the support of some of those very wealthy donors who are similarly disillusioned with the main parties.

Yet the biggest hurdle which the new grouping will face, growing into a successful entity, will be the vagaries of the first-past-the-post electoral system used in British elections.

British MPs are elected in single-seat constituencies, where the candidate with the highest vote takes the seat and there are no transfers. It’s a system that tends towards binary choice, and if the vote of the new party is evenly spread geographically the system will operate against it breaking through.

Mind you, these are unprecedented time in British politics, and the mood of the times has to favour a new political entity succeeding.