In March 2012 Fianna Fáil invited leading UK political scientist Tim Bale to address its ardfheis. Bale had just published a book entitled The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron and was therefore well placed to talk to the Fianna Fáil faithful about the lessons their party could learn from how the Tories coped with their collapse after Thatcher and managed their subsequent recovery and return to power.
I summarised Bale's presentation here the following weekend as a 12- step programme for Fianna Fáil's recovery.
It is now three years, almost to the day, since Bale’s ardfheis appearance and Fianna Fáil is arguably in a worse position than it was then. The party’s poll ratings at 17 per cent are as low as they were in the 2011 election, leading to renewed skirmishes within the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party. This week also saw the defection of one of Fianna Fáil’s young councillors to be a Renua candidate in the Carlow-Kilkenny byelection.
It is an apposite moment to assess what progress, if any, Fianna Fáil has made on Bale's recovery programme. Step 1, Bale said, was to "fully grasp the enormity and scale of the defeat". Fianna Fáil did apologise for its errors but it is still struggling to appreciate how toxic its brand had become.
Step 2, said Bale, was "don't underestimate your opponents". The Tories, he pointed out, thought Tony Blair "was a lightweight phoney who would mess up early". Many in Fianna Fáil similarly thought Enda Kenny would not be up to the job. They thought they could just wait for the Fine Gael-Labour government to mess up or break up and that voters would inevitably flock back. The coalition didn't break up, and Independents and Sinn Féin became the main beneficiaries when the Government messed up. Step 3 was "spend money on opinion research and act on it". They may have spent thousands on such research but Fianna Fáil seems incapable of analysing it properly or acting on it so as to capitalise on the voters' sense of disconnect and anger.
Step 4 was "don't waste time defending your record". To be fair Fianna Fáil has learned this lesson.
Step 5, Bale said, was "don't waste too much time on internal structural reform". Fianna Fáil did introduce one-member one-vote conventions and other organisational rule changes in the year after the last election and then moved on.
Step 6 was to "do all possible, visually and verbally, to signal change". Bale said the Tories had not gone as far as changing their name but Cameron did change their look and tone and started saying and doing new things. The most important thing, Bale said, is to communicate that you are changing. Fianna Fáil has simply had no real change to communicate. Step 7 was "accept that policy review should be strategic and symbolic rather than substantive". Bale believed parties in this particular predicament should spend time reviewing their policies but primarily as a means of persuading the commentariat or chattering classes that the party is doing some new thinking. Fianna Fáil has published many policy papers but few of those bothering to read them see a strategic shift.
Step 8 was "oppose the Government tooth and nail" but avoid "populist bandwagon negativity". Fianna Fáil has been keeping the Government under pressure on issues like mortgage debt. The party has avoided opposition for opposition's sake. This has been easy since the Kenny-led Government has, in the main, been following the economic policies set out in the four-year plan prepared by the Cowen-led government.
Step 9 was one of Bale's strongest warnings. "Don't be fooled by 'success' in second-order elections." The Tories under William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith had convinced themselves they were on the way back when they did well in local, European and byelections only to suffer defeat again when the general election came around. The stock answer of Fianna Fáil politicians to all criticism these days is to point to how well they did in last year's local elections. Step 10 was "recognise that the key to comeback is leadership". The leader, he said, must "embody" change. Micheál Martin has worked hard at this but is inevitably hampered by his membership of previous governments.
Step 11 was "realise that comebacks take two or three parliamentary terms" and Step 12 was "remember that parties with venerable traditions rarely disappear". These two final observations should be reassuring but in reality they are of little comfort to Fianna Fáil as the parliamentary term enters its final year. Martin has been too cautious and has run out of time to effect recovery or repositioning before the next election. It seems unlikely any replacement leader could do better.
Twitter: @noelwhelan