Not so much 'Groundhog Day' again as 'Waiting for Godot'

In the end, those around Dr Paisley just couldn't keep the rein on his unpredictable manner - the preacher man took over from…

In the end, those around Dr Paisley just couldn't keep the rein on his unpredictable manner - the preacher man took over from the politician, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.

People often compare the Northern political process to the film Groundhog Day, where the characters are condemned to relive the same day over and over. But they are wrong. The process is like Waiting for Godot.

For those few Irish Times readers unfamiliar with the play, Samuel Beckett's characters Vladimir and Estragon are still waiting. And so are we. And we will wait for a while longer before there is a comprehensive political agreement in Northern Ireland.

Good old Vlad and Estragon: they generally travel in hope, occasionally losing faith, but always prepared to face the night in the possibility of a bright dawn, of Godot wandering on to the stage. So it was with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister in the Waterfront Hall in Belfast yesterday.

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Mr Ahern said this final issue of pictures could be resolved before Christmas. Later, though, he conceded that a pre-Christmas solution was perhaps "aspirational". But like Beckett's men, both the Taoiseach and Prime Minister hold to their duty of hope.

Nine days ago the question was asked here: would Gerry Adams see the chance of a deal wasted over a picture of a redundant AK47? Would Ian Paisley sacrifice all that the DUP gained for a photograph of a redundant rocket launcher? We got our answer yesterday: yes, and yes again.

We are now into the blame game, a more popular past-time than PlayStation 2 up here. At the DUP press conference in east Belfast yesterday, the Rev Ian Paisley blamed republicans for the crash of this agreement.

Over in west Belfast, the Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams, said it was all the DUP's responsibility.

No surprises there. The tendency at such times is for culpability to break down along sectarian lines. It's simple: nationalists blame unionists and unionists blame nationalists. It's already shaping up for that pattern of fault-finding, but there could be some variations on that game this time.

The reasonable question being asked yesterday was, What was the point in Mr Ahern and Mr Blair coming to Belfast without a deal? Wasn't that an abject admission of yet another failure in this process? To try to understand the governments' reasoning one must also understand that in recent weeks the consistent line from Dublin and London was that they hoped that the IRA might make some compromises on photographs.

Mr Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness in the negotiations during and since Leeds Castle in September didn't say yes to pictures, and they didn't say no, we were told. The governments drew hope from this absence of a definitive response that the IRA might live with pictures being perhaps shown to Dr Paisley, and even possibly being published.

But, as Mr Blair acknowledged yesterday, it is not a "sensible" negotiating tactic to try to humiliate your opponent. Yet that's what Dr Paisley with great gusto and zeal did over the past week and more. Even yesterday, he said if republicans couldn't tolerate sack cloth then they should try a "hairshirt".

Objectively, there's a reasonable point here. As Dr Paisley said, republicans have many acts to be repentant for. Maybe he has some himself? But in the face of the most sensitive negotiations and only inches away from the "deal of all deals", why lash out in such manner?

People around him tried to prevent him flailing away in his predictably unpredictable manner, and for several weeks they succeeded. But in the end they just couldn't keep the rein on him - the preacher man took over from the politician.

There are several logical reasons why the IRA should have produced pictures.

After all, as several DUP people have stated, unionists had to see the destruction of the RUC, the toppling of watchtowers, IRA killers walking free early - why couldn't the Provos take a little grief for the overall good? That point can't be gainsaid. But equally, and most people wish it were otherwise, the majority of informed observers in their gut, based on their experience and intuition, feared the game was up when Dr Paisley launched into rant mode last Saturday week in Ballymena.

Perhaps republicans would have baulked at pictures even if Dr Paisley had remained temperate in his language. But the fact remains that short of the line the governments felt there was a possibility the photographic issue could be finessed, and that would have required compromise from Mr Adams.

The Sinn Féin president probably was being genuine when he portrayed Dr Paisley's onslaught on republicans as the deal breaker. Certainly republicans now have an excuse for not producing pictures that most nationalists in Northern Ireland, at least, will accept.

Dr Paisley is confident that he won't take any hits in the blame game.

Again based on experience he is probably correct. But there are some unionists who are angered that Northern Ireland has lost a deal that the governments say involved the IRA retiring, decommissioning, Sinn Féin signing up to policing (perhaps the biggest prize of all), a power-sharing government, and Dr Paisley as first minister. Couldn't the DUP leader have bit his lip just a little bit longer to test at least whether all that was attainable?

Alan McBride who lost his wife and father-in-law in the IRA Shankill bombing was clearly upset and frustrated when he spoke on BBC Radio Ulster's Talkback programme yesterday.

Dr Paisley should be wearing "sack cloth and ashes" for robbing Northern Ireland of such a powerful deal, he said. That may not be a typical unionist response but quite a number would have similar views.

So, like Vladimir and Estragon, will we be waiting forever for a deal? Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will meet on the margins of an EU meeting next week to see if there is a way forward. The Northern Secretary Paul Murphy and Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern will meet the parties next week.

Mr Murphy told The Irish Times last night, "Yes, we are disappointed, but we are not despairing." Like Beckett's characters.

There really is just one issue left to resolve; not guns, not Semtex, not policing, not even whether there would be independent observation of IRA decommissioning in addition to Gen de Chastelain - but photographs

Mr Blair, when advising Dr Paisley against humiliating his opponents, also said it wasn't sensible to overreact to such talk. Somewhere in that comment lies the solution: a little more restraint from the Doc, a thicker skin, just a little more give from republicans.

How long we must wait for that to happen is hard to call. But if Northern Ireland politicians have any competence, it shouldn't be as long as Vladimir and Estragon have to wait.