General elections are not won or lost on single issues. Tony Blair didn’t deliver a landslide in 1997 because of his pledge to deliver a national minimum wage or greater devolution for Scotland and Wales. Similarly, David Cameron’s unexpected majority in 2015 was not simply on the back of a promise to cut inheritance tax or his long-term economic plan.
Significant though these things were, results of general elections emerge from the nation’s prevailing mood; the aggregation of attack and counterattack lines; and the holistic policy platform of each party.
But this won’t be a normal election. No matter what Corbyn says during the campaign – and we can be sure Labour will cast the manifesto net wider than every other major contender – this is as close to a single-issue election as possibly conceivable.
This is an election that has arrived two years after Theresa May squandered her majority in 2017 to make passing a Brexit deal easier, and an election that has come out of a parliament so divided that it was unable to coalesce around any possible configuration of Brexit until last week.
Brexit has reshaped British politics along unprecedented lines, adding a crucial dynamic to every parties' wheelhouse
It’s an election called for by a new prime minister who won the coveted keys to No 10 on a promise to deliver Brexit on October 31st no matter what – followed immediately by his failure to do so.
And it is an election – lest we forget – made all the more necessary since Boris Johnson kicked out 21 of his own MPs for defying him over his insistence that no-deal remains on the table.
Every party will chuck in policy promises and spending pledges – liberated from their requirement to actually deliver them – on the NHS, policing, welfare and local government. But this is nothing beyond a distraction from the central issue on which the parties’ fates will live or die.
Unprecedented lines
Brexit has reshaped British politics along unprecedented lines, adding a crucial dynamic to every parties’ wheelhouse.
The Conservatives have abandoned their tradition calling card as the party of fiscal responsibility, and have rebranded as the force that will “get Brexit done”.
Labour, meanwhile, is not just the party of the NHS and housing, but also the party of a second referendum, a soft Brexit, possibly no Brexit at all.
Brexit has not just corrupted the two traditional parties’ policy lines and core messages, but heralded the end of the two-party system on which the UK has long functioned – at least for now.
Brexit has granted the extant smaller parties – the SNP and the Lib Dems – a new raison d’etre, and it is entirely responsible for the formation of the nascent, yet not to be underestimated Brexit Party.
The Liberal Democrats can count their lucky stars. Since Jo Swinson stepped in as leader of the party over the summer she has made it official policy to revoke article 50.
Reading the tea leaves on how exactly Brexit will impact the shape of the next parliament is no easy feat
That only works in an election premised on Brexit, and crucially in an election held before the Conservatives have managed to get their deal over the line. There’s little use in the party’s main policy being revocation of article 50 if Brexit has already happened.
Exactly what the Liberal Democrats’ political calling card is after a deal has been delivered is hard to work out. The victory it enjoyed in the European elections in May was a reflection of its staunch Remain sensibilities. So long as it can count on a Brexit election then it can expect to see its black and white approach to the question paying it serious dividends.
Farage’s latest outfit
And on the other side of things, Nigel Farage’s latest outfit – the Brexit Party – has even less political capital in a post-Brexit election landscape. The clue to this one is very much in the name. Thanks to the vagaries of the UK’s first past the post voting system it is not expected to win many, or indeed any, seats.
But if Farage decides to capitalise on Johnson’s failure to deliver Brexit “come what may” on October 31st, then he could cause a serious headache for the Conservative Party by splitting the Leave vote and leaving space for Labour or the Lib Dems.
Yet the Conservatives too have good reason to be hopeful about a Brexit-centric election. They benefit from a clarity of message that Labour lack; Johnson should not be underestimated as a campaigner; and if they can spin it right they can push the electorate into backing the Tories who are desperately trying to deliver the will of the people versus those on the other side of the chamber who consistently try to deny it to them.
Reading the tea leaves on how exactly Brexit will impact the shape of the next parliament is no easy feat. But what is certain is that British politics has been remodelled along these lines, and the winner that emerges from the ruck will be the one that most competently capitalises on it.