THE DECISIONS to be taken by Taoiseach Brian Cowen to address the economic downturn in the coming week will determine the calibre of his leadership and the general welfare of this State for the foreseeable future. A verdict will be made on his stewardship even though he is less than 10 weeks in office. For the prospect of hanging, like the onset of recession, serves to concentrate the public and political mind, wonderfully.
Unlike his lucky predecessor, Bertie Ahern, Mr Cowen could not have taken over at a less propitious time in the affairs of this State. The long goodbye and the assumption of high office occupied political minds at a time, arguably, when there should have been a longer lead-in to the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. It was defeated and the Government, as the main proponent of a Yes vote, carries most of the blame.
Now the ESRI has delivered a wake-up call to all with its forecast of a recession. Its bleak analysis confirmed what the public had suspected as it watched economic growth falter, consumer confidence collapse, house prices fall, inflation and unemployment rise in recent months. The dismal set of exchequer figures may serve as a catalyst for Government action with Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan promising to take decisions on corrective action at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting.
The people will suspend judgment on the Government’s management of the economy until they are in a better position to decide. A bemused public is looking for reassurance and leadership. The decisions to be made next week will determine whether the Taoiseach and his Government have the measure of the economic challenge facing this State. The real question is will a more decisive Mr Cowen act as firm enforcer of the tough decisions the Government has to take in the national interest in the coming months?
The last three decades have seen a number of major economic turning points, moments when a challenge was defined, sometimes met and sometimes shirked.
In 1980, Charles Haughey as taoiseach gave a memorable TV address about a country living beyond its means, only to shirk the challenge posed by fiscal rectitude. Later, the Fine Gael/Labour coalition made a partial contribution to resolving the crisis in the public finances. But it relied too heavily on raising taxes to rectify budget imbalances, and failed to regenerate the economy. It was only in 1987, 21 years ago, that the challenge was adequately met, this time by a chastened Mr Haughey, and a resolute finance minister, Ray MacSharry. A new economic blueprint included spending cuts and social partnership, where pay restraint was traded for lower taxes, and it became the formula for future economic success.
There is a political climate and public acceptance that resolute action is now required to minimise the threat to the prosperity we enjoyed over the last 15 years. If the lead comes from the top, the public may more readily accept sacrifices. Symbolism may matter as much as substance. Over to you, Mr Cowen.