AS THE economic storm clouds gather and Government revenues go into free fall, Fianna Fáil maintains its highest level of public support in more than six years, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. It is an extraordinary development and it emphasises, as nothing else might, the unease of the electorate in present circumstances and the brittle nature of the support put together so painstakingly by the Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny.
Fine Gael has experienced its worst showing in three years. Support for the party fell to 23 per cent, a drop of three points since the last opinion poll three weeks ago. By contrast, Fianna Fáil retained the 42 per cent support registered within a week of the change in leadership. Support for the Labour Party remains steady at 15 per cent. Sinn Féin, the only party in the Dáil to oppose the Lisbon Treaty, added two points, to 8 per cent. The Green Party gained one point, now standing at 5 per cent. The Progressive Democrats remained stuck on 1 per cent.
There is no doubt the various campaigns on the Lisbon Treaty have influenced party support, along with the satisfaction levels of party leaders. A surge in sentiment towards the No camp has been marked by public disquiet with the current leaderships. The four leaders supporting the treaty, Brian Cowen, Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore and John Gormley, saw their popularity ratings fall by between four and five points, influenced primarily by No voters. At the same time, public satisfaction with Gerry Adams also declined by three points, driven by antipathy from Yes voters. However, the minor part being played by the leader of the Opposition, Mr Kenny, in advocating a Yes vote in the referendum campaign may account, in part, for Fine Gael's eclipse.
That Fianna Fáil should retain support, as public satisfaction with the Government declined by two points, indicates the insecurity and volatility of the electorate. Economic uncertainty is giving rise to protectionist demands by farmers and fishermen, while other voters are concerned about Ireland's future position within the European Union. In such a situation, the party that presided over 10 years of solid growth is obviously seen as the safest pair of hands. Fianna Fáil won the last two general elections campaigning on the grounds that the public could not afford to trust the alternative. On the basis of this opinion poll, that message still resonates with voters.