The New Hampshire primaries have opened up an intriguing contest in the US Republican party between Mr George W. Bush and Mr John McCain, the outsider who won by a margin of 49 to 30 per cent of the vote. In the Democratic primary, Mr Al Gore had a very narrow victory over Mr Bill Bradley, which keeps that contest wide open. Thus the state has once again vindicated its role as a catalyst in the election campaign.
Mr Gore was fortunate to emerge victorious in New Hampshire. He had a much narrower margin of victory than in the Iowa caucuses. Whatever about the level of national public interest, there has been ample opportunity for the candidates to get their messages across and for those interested to evaluate their performances and assess their suitability as candidates for presidential office. In this respect, Mr Bradley ran a campaign that improved dramatically the more he attacked Mr Gore, drawing on radical credentials attractive to the New Hampshire voters. He was increasingly more effective than Mr Gore in debates in his defence of public health services and liberal abortion policies. Mr Gore has still a strong position as the leading Democratic candidate and looks much more likely to do well in the next critical primaries. But he will find it more difficult to raise the money against an opponent who has a surprisingly strong electoral war chest.
Mr John McCain's decisive victory has certainly added greatly to the interest of the Republican contest. His personality and programme had an evident appeal to New Hampshire voters, including the substantial number of independents registered. Traditionally they warm to a maverick candidate hostile to the Washington establishment. Mr McCain played perfectly to that constituency. He offered them some unorthodox views and reinforced his image as a decisive and experienced man with leadership potential. The result will make it much easier to raise the money necessary to stay in the race, in which he could run Mr Bush close. But the Texan still has the crucial advantage of more resources and support at national level.
So far relatively few powerful new issues have emerged from these contests. The United States's current prosperity, strong growth and low unemployment tend to neutralise the economic issue at this stage of the campaign, as none of the candidates is willing to utter jeremiads about personal over-borrowing and the high levels of consumption that worry overseas observers. Abortion is an important issue within both campaigns but probably has limited potential to divide the parties nationally later in the year when attitudes will tend to converge. The same applies to the death penalty. At this stage a great deal revolves around the suitability of the contending candidates for the highest office. That is where the rhetoric and public attention is concentrated.