Earlier this week I met an old friend from South Africa. This man had spent much of his adult life in exile in Britain, involved in the struggle against apartheid. He was a senior journalist on the Observer, at a time when I was a young (well, relatively young) reporter writing about the civil rights movement in Derry and the discrimination that existed at that time.
He was always extremely supportive, even though the story often involved reporting critically on the activities of the security forces and the RUC. He has maintained his interest in the peace process. "How are things in your country? Will Burnside win?" he asked me on Monday.
I explained that we are going through a rather difficult time and asked him about the situation in South Africa. "Well, we don't have your problems, thank goodness," he said emphatically. I must have looked surprised, having read extremely depressing reports recently on the scourge of AIDS, the rise in violent crime and so on.
"It's so easy to focus on the bad things," my friend reproached me. "Of course, we have big problems. But we have also made extraordinary advances. The important thing is that there can be no going back. We have drawn a definitive line under a terrible period in our history."
It was a salutary and, for me, extremely timely comment. We, too, know that the peace process is facing into an extremely difficult time. Already, there have been predictions that the Belfast Agreement could unravel. I've contributed to them myself. It makes it all the more important that we should remember how much has been achieved, and that, for all the difficulties ahead, there will be no return to the discrimination and injustices of the past.
This is not to play down the problems which face all those who signed up to the accord two years ago. The result of today's poll in South Antrim will have serious implications for what happens within unionism in the next few weeks.
As Frank Millar, our London Editor, pointed out in a cogently argued article on Monday, even if David Burnside wins, his presence at Westminster is likely to increase pressures on David Trimble on issues such as the future of the RUC. Against that, a Burnside victory is likely to stem rising panic within the party and avert an immediate challenge to Trimble's leadership.
By far the most difficult challenge facing all the parties is the Northern Ireland Police Bill, which is due to go before the House of Lords early in October. There have been accusations that Peter Mandelson has "betrayed" the letter and spirit of Patten, particularly on issues such as accountability and the name of the new force.
Nationalist critics say that the Secretary of State has reserved crucial powers to himself.
Seamus Mallon has taken the lead in personalising the attack on Mr Mandelson, but the criticism is consistent across the spectrum of nationalist opinion, from the Government of this State through to Sinn Fein. The Secretary of State, for his part, has pleaded with nationalists not to be "absolutist" and to look at the big picture. British sources say that he is worried that he could lose not only David Trimble, but what remains of moderate unionist opinion if the changes to the RUC are pushed too far. Clearly, there is going to be considerable pressure on the SDLP to break with Sinn Fein in the interests of saving the peace process.
As always in Northern Ireland, there is a more fundamental conflict of views between the two communities. Pro-agreement unionists say that their whole community is smarting from a profound sense of loss and humiliation. The decision virtually to abandon the RUC, the insensitivity to those who have lost loved ones over the past 30 years, are just part of a deeper betrayal designed to placate the enemies of unionism.
If Irish nationalism is serious about its commitment to a new political order, it is time to make a leap of faith on the policing issue, just as unionists were prepared to do over decommissioning when Trimble led his party back into the executive.
To this both the SDLP and Sinn Fein respond that if the Belfast Agreement cannot deliver a police force which they can support - and urge their young supporters to join - then the accord is not worth the paper it is written on. Sinn Fein argues that it has moved a very long way from its original demand for the total disbandment of the RUC.
Realistically, what both governments are hoping for is that some compromise can be agreed which Sinn Fein will not actively oppose, and that the party's silence will be enough to allow young Catholics to join the new force. There are other dangers along that particular path. Republicans point out that if Sinn Fein withholds its active approval, breakaway groups like the Continuity IRA might well begin to target policemen and women.
There are a lot of bitter memories in both communities, which is why the issue of policing is so difficult to resolve. Seamus Mallon has remarked, in somewhat apocalyptic terms, that the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement is more important than the political survival of any individual - whether that be David Trimble, Peter Mandelson or himself. We are not at that point yet, but we may have to face it.
When the First Minister and his deputy met George Mitchell recently he reminded them that, at the time the Belfast Agreement was signed, he warned them that implementing the deal would be very much more difficult than negotiating it. Maybe so, but that Good Friday two years ago still marks the point when both communities in Ireland drew a line under the past. The difficulties which we are experiencing now cannot change that.