The EU needs a new strategy to persuade reluctant European electorates - including the Irish - that Turkish accession is a good idea, write Fiachra Kennedy and Richard Sinnott
On October 3rd, 2005, after protracted diplomatic bargaining, Turkey was invited by the European Union to begin accession negotiations. When the announcement was made, it was also made clear that this new round of negotiations is expected to take at least a decade to complete. As well as being needed to complete the difficult negotiations, the long period envisaged will also be needed to persuade large swathes of EU public opinion that Turkish membership is a good idea.
The balance of public opinion in the EU as a whole is against Turkey joining. Across the 25 member states, more than half are opposed to Turkish membership (55 per cent) while less than a third are in favour (31 per cent). This leaves 14 per cent "don't knows". If we exclude the "don't knows" (on the assumption that they will not form any opinion on the matter or, if they do, that their opinions will approximate to the distribution of opinion among those who do say yes or no), the balance of opinion is 64:36 against Turkish membership. Even without redistributing the "don't knows" in this way, there are many states where the level of opposition to Turkish membership exceeds 60 per cent. These include two of the EU heavy-hitters, namely Germany (73 per cent opposed, 22 in favour) and France (68 per cent opposed, 21 in favour).
Irish public opinion appears to be moving away from, rather than towards, support for Turkey's accession.
Over the past three years, there has been a 21-percentage point drop in support for Turkey's membership of the EU among Irish people. What is interesting about the latest Eurobarometer survey is that, for the first time, Irish people are more likely to be opposed to Turkey joining the EU than to be in favour of it joining. Thirty-three per cent of Irish people are in favour of Turkey joining the EU but 40 per cent are opposed. Despite this shift in public opinion, a sizeable percentage of Irish people have yet to make up their minds (27 per cent).
Rather than letting this problem drift along until negotiations are more or less complete, the EU needs to develop and implement a long-term strategy designed to persuade reluctant European electorates that Turkish accession is a good idea. In developing the strategy, the European Commission should bear three points in mind.
The first is that while public support for Turkey's accession is low, Turkey is not alone. Eurobarometer data shows that there is little enthusiasm for the accession of a whole block of southeast European countries. Thirty-six per cent of Europeans are in favour of Albania joining the EU while less than half of respondents support the accession of Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro and Macedonia. However, this is not simply a matter of opposition to enlargement as such, since three-quarters of people are in favour of Norway and Switzerland joining the EU. All of this implies that the persuasion strategy needs to address not just the Turkish issue but also the larger issue of the shape of the EU on its southeastern flank.
The second point to bear in mind is that enlargement of the EU is not a salient issue for most Europeans. When asked what issues the EU should prioritise, only a very small minority of European respondents (4 per cent) believe priority should be given to "welcoming new member countries". This is in fact a hopeful sign. If enlargement were a highly prominent issue for people, the current levels of opposition would be much more serious. Because the issue is not salient for most people, the scope for persuasion and for changing attitudes is much greater.
The third consideration that any would-be strategist must bear in mind is the set of arguments that are associated with favourable and unfavourable attitudes towards Turkey's accession. These arguments are the stuff on which persuasion needs to focus. The evidence from Ireland suggests that those who are in favour of Turkey's accession feel that it is part of Europe because of its geography and its history. They agree that its accession will enhance understanding between European and Muslim values, strengthen security and help rejuvenate an ageing European population.
Irish people who are against Turkey joining the EU tend to focus on cultural differences that they regard as "too significant to allow for this accession".
People's attitudes towards the EU in general also help shape their opinions on Turkish membership. Those who have a positive view of the EU are more likely to favour Turkey's membership.
People who associate the EU with democracy, cultural diversity, economic prosperity and freedom to travel, study and work are also more likely to favour rather than oppose Turkey's accession.
The opposite is the case amongst people who associate the EU with loss of national and cultural identity and concerns with crime and border control.
If Turkey is to become a member state of the EU, it is clear that the next 10 years must not only involve elite-level negotiations but also efforts to persuade Europeans to support Turkey's membership. Many Europeans felt uninformed about the recent enlargement from 15 to 25 member states and believed that they were not included, even remotely, in any sort of public debate that might have improved their level of knowledge.
If this is allowed to happen in the next round, the consequences may be more serious.
Dr Fiachra Kennedy is a research fellow and Prof Richard Sinnott is director of the Public Opinion and Political Behaviour Research Programme at the Geary Institute, UCD