Do not put your anti-war placards away yet, writes Richard Boyd Barret.
Fianna Fáil's Martin Mansergh suggested recently in The Irish Times that the latest UN assembly vote on Iraq and the June 28th "hand-over" of "sovereignty" means there is now no reason to protest about Iraq or Shannon.
He added that anti-war protests were counter-productive and had actually strengthened President Bush. But before we rush to put away our placards, let's recall that the US invasion of Iraq has produced many such claims and new dawns - all false.
Remember Weapons of Mass Destruction and links between al-Qaeda and the Iraqi regime. None were found but the US occupation succeeded where Bin Laden failed in bringing al-Qaeda and the tactic of suicide bombing to Iraq.
There was "surgical" war that would minimise civilian casualties. The civilian death toll in Iraq has now passed 10,000 and may be as high as 13,000. We had "liberation" when Saddam's statue was toppled before the world's media. This dawn evaporated amid huge demonstrations of Iraqis calling for an end to the US occupation.
On May 1st President Bush announced "major combat operations" had ended. About 6,000 civilians have died since then. The capture of Saddam was to make it all seem worthwhile. That hope faded too, amid escalating resistance to the US occupation.
Here, the Government also made spectacular claims about its role in the war. When 150,000 marched in Dublin under the banner "No war on Iraq - US military out of Shannon", the Taoiseach told us we were marching in support of Government policy - the policy of allowing 200,000 troops through Shannon on the way to kill innocent Iraqis.
When protests exposed the true extent of US military traffic through Shannon, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, still assured us that our neutrality remained fully intact.
This might just be ancient history except the dawn of Iraqi "sovereignty" is as false as the dawns preceding it. As journalist Robert Fisk put it, it's a case of "Alice in Wonderland".
In recent opinion polls in Iraq, the un-elected new Iraqi Prime Minister, Mr Allawi, came 17th out of 17 candidates as the preferred prime minister for Iraq. Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr, branded "extremist" by the US, came first with a 68 per cent approval rating.
Mr Allawi and his ministers have all talked openly of introducing martial law in Iraq, the favoured tactic of Middle-East dictatorships, including Saddam Hussein's.
The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) rushed through 97 laws, described as "binding directives to the Iraqi people", before "handing over" power. These included a commission with the right to ban political parties or candidates from standing in elections and a law introduced by Saddam banning public sector workers from joining trade unions.
Before the "hand-over" the CPA spent billions of dollars of Iraqi oil money. Attempts to audit this expenditure have encountered resistance. Christian Aid estimates that $20 billion is unaccounted for. Huge contracts were given overwhelmingly to US corporations without competitive tendering. US corporations are charging many times more than Iraqi companies for services. Contracts signed by the CPA are binding on the new government.
The 138,000 US troops on Iraqi soil are, of course, the most telling evidence that Iraq is not sovereign. Theoretically, Mr Allawi has the right to ask the US to leave but he will not sign his own political death warrant by doing so. His government is a puppet by any definition and likely to become ever more brutal as it fights to crush growing resistance to the occupation.
The US wants UN legitimacy for the occupation but President Bush has no intention of handing over control to the UN. Anyway, the UN's association with sanctions would hardly endear it to the Iraqi people.
So nothing has really changed since the "hand-over"and the body count keeps rising. The Irish Government will have Iraqi blood on its hands as long as it allows US troops and weapons to travel through Shannon en route to Iraq.
Hope lies not in false dawns or fairytales but with the determination of the Iraqi people to oppose the occupation and with the global anti-war movement. The suggestion that protests have had no impact is dishonest nonsense. A year of anti-war protests across the world has forced a permanent political crisis over Iraq. If President Bush loses the upcoming election it will be because of rapidly-growing opposition to what the US is doing in Iraq. The British government has faced inquiries, splits and a drubbing at recent elections because of the war.
The government in Spain was driven out of power and the new administration forced to end Spain's involvement in the occupation. The al-Qaeda bombs in Madrid had the exact opposite effect of the 9/11 attacks in the US because millions had protested and 90 per cent of the population opposed the war.
Here, Fianna Fáil's decline in the polls from the heights of two years ago accelerated dramatically the week after the big anti-war protest in Dublin. The Government knows this. That's why Bertie Ahern warned against anti-Bush protests and why posters and ads for anti-war events were banned.
It took 10 years of Vietnamese resistance and international protest to force the US out of Vietnam. Just over a year of Iraqi resistance and global anti-war protest and the US and its allies are facing a similar crisis. So don't put your placards away just yet.
Richard Boyd Barret is chairperson of the Irish Anti-War Movement