There was no ambiguity in the Taoiseach's warning in South Africa this week that the political advances made in Northern Ireland would "fall apart" if the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons does not take place by May. The decommissioning of arms by May 2000 was part of the Belfast Agreement, he warned, and it cannot be "dodged in any way". He then went on to confront the political reality which has been carried over into the new millennium. The first Minister, Mr Trimble, had made time shorter than they would all like "but I understand why he did that. I accepted that position".
Mr Ahern was referring to Mr Trimble's commitment to reconvene a meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council next month - at a date yet to be set - to report on the progress being made on decommissioning. Mr Trimble found it necessary to give such a promise to his party in order to get the agreement of a majority to enter into the Executive with Sinn Fein while the IRA still holds arms. This approaching deadline, together with the likely modalities of decommissioning, have been the subject of important meetings on both sides of the Atlantic in recent days as the political system gears up after the recess.
After his meeting in Downing Street with the British Prime Minister yesterday, Mr Trimble called on the paramilitaries to begin decommissioning their weapons this month or risk plunging the peace process into "default". If there was no progress on decommissioning, he said, there would be an effective default in implementing the Mitchell Review and the Belfast Agreement. The Sinn Fein leader, Mr Adams, had stressed, following his meeting with President Clinton in Washington on Wednesday, that deadlines and ultimatums had not worked anywhere in the world in trying to get peace processes to come to democratic conclusions. This is limp and irrelevant. The unionists gave. Republicans must now give back.
The political reality is that the deadline for decommissioning is fast approaching and must be met. Senator George Mitchell's review on November 15th, accompanied by Gen de Chastelain's statement, provided the basis for the establishment of the Executive, Sinn Fein's entry into an inclusive government, the North/South and British/Irish institutions and the dropping of the territorial claim to the North in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution. The quid pro quo for these democratic developments was the appointment of interlocutors to the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning and Gen de Chastelain's assessment on December 10th that "decommissioning will occur".
The fact is that three dates are looming on the decommissioning calendar. Gen de Chastelain is due to make a further report to the British and Irish Governments by the end of this month. Mr Trimble will face another Ulster Unionist Council meeting sometime next month when it is expected that he will, at a minimum, be able to report progress on the arms issue. And the IRA and the loyalist paramilitaries are committed to the full decommissioning of their arsenals by the last week in May.
With the establishment of democratic institutions under the Belfast Agreement, a new context has been created in Northern Ireland. Mr Trimble put his leadership on the line and gave ground bravely and generously when he led his party into government with Sinn Fein. If there is any default on decommissioning in coming weeks and months, the wrath of the two Governments, the Clinton administration and public opinion, North and South, will descend on Sinn Fein and the IRA. The Republicans are equally obliged to honour their commitments and they must not doubt it.