There is an urgent need to revitalise the Northern Ireland peace process by a rapid transition to substantive talks on a settlement. The collapse of confidence in the process among unionists over the Christmas recess was caused largely by the failure to agree even an agenda. Within this vacuum the prisoners issue was talked up by loyalist parties concerned with unbalanced confidence-building measures, and then gravely exacerbated by the murder of the loyalist leader Billy Wright.
It was therefore good to see talks resume yesterday at the highest level between unionist leaders and the British government and reassuring to learn that Dr Mo Mowlam and Mr Tony Blair are determined to see their way through this difficult time. This is not a full-blown crisis, but it will test their resolve and imagination, and those of the Government in Dublin.
Political leadership is required to reassure all concerned about the parameters of the agreement that is now possible. It may have to come from the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and Mr Blair, if the talks are to move on to a substantive plane. They must take account of the need for inclusiveness as well as realism. Quite sufficient discussion has been had to allow them to reiterate together what they expect to be the shape of an agreement. But those who call on them to intervene must be aware that there is a limit to how often they can do so without fatally undermining their own credibility.
One lesson both governments should learn from these events is that they will need to co-ordinate their approach towards confidence-building measures in future, especially on the prisoners issue. Whereas Dublin has shown imagination on this score, it has not been met by a willingness in London to release loyalist paramilitary prisoners - in contrast to the treatment of British soldiers jailed for offences in the course of duty. It should not be beyond the political wit of Mr Blair and his ministers to find a formula that would allow the loyalist prisoners issue to be talked down once again.
A disturbing effect of these events has been the apparent erosion of Mr David Trimble's room for manoeuvre just at the point when he most needs to agree an agenda for substantive talks. Several of his colleagues have restated in public their hostility to the direction of the process, allowing those opposed in principle to say it no longer commands the support of a majority of unionist MPs. It is essential that those among the unionist community who have strongly supported the peace process should now restate their conviction. Despite the pessimistic mood coming into the New Year, there is still very good reason to believe they represent the majority of ordinary citizens, as well as organised interest groups.
The basic elements of a possible settlement are plainly, indeed tediously, obvious to most participants in the Northern Ireland talks. They include the principle of consent, a devolved assembly, power-sharing arrangements, North-South executive bodies and a constructive and imaginative new set of relations between Ireland and Britain, both changing and both having to adapt to transformed European and global settings. As Mr Ahern pointed out at the weekend, there is a now a real opportunity to make progress towards such a settlement. It would be tragic indeed if a continued impasse were to deprive the next generation of its fruits.