Schroder's gambit

The dramatic reversal in the opinion poll standing of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the Social Democrats in the last month …

The dramatic reversal in the opinion poll standing of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the Social Democrats in the last month has turned this Sunday's German election into a cliffhanger.

Mr Schröder's astute management of the floods crisis and his willingness robustly to reject German participation in US action in Iraq - 80 per cent of Germans support him on the issue - have won him back supporters disillusioned by his long-term failure to get to grips with unemployment standing at 10 per cent.

His stance on Iraq has also helped to reconcile his coalition partner, Mr Joshka Fischer, Germany's Foreign Minister and most popular politician, with his Green Party and its base. Its performance will be important to keeping the current coalition together, the Chancellor's prefered alternative to a coalition with the centrist Free Democrats.

His opponent, Mr Edmund Stoiber, the leader of the CDU/CSU alliance, is cut from a very different cloth. Deeply conservative, dour, known as the "Bavarian pit-bull", he has been able to make much of his successful record on jobs and technological innovation as prime minister of his state since 1993. But his campaign has been lacklustre and short of new ideas, unable to put clear water between him and the Social Democrats.

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From a European perspective, moreover, the two very different candidates are likely to steer Germany on a remarkably similar course. Continuity should be the order of the day, as Mr Stoiber has moved significantly to soften his image as a Eurosceptic.

The German public has traditionally eschewed politicians who attack the European project while being quite willing to back specific, sharp criticisms of an aloof and distant Commission. Two quite different approaches.

Crucially, Mr Stoiber has chosen as his two key European advisers, Mr Wolfgang Schaüble and Mr Lothar Späth, both well-regarded Europhiles - indeed, the former published an important paper on political integration in 1994 which contributed to launching the Amsterdam Treaty process. German support for enlargement and the work of the EU Convention seems assured, while the old Franco-German alliance, recently in the doldrums, but for so long the motor of Europe, is set to get a dramatic boost if Mr Stoiber is elected.

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