Thirty-five years ago, as a young member of Fine Gael, I attended the ardfheis dance in Clery's ballroom on a Tuesday night. The function was merely an adjunct to the customary Tuesday night festivities in Clery's ballroom and, therefore, the usual clientele mixed with Fine Gael stalwarts, much to the bewilderment of the regular patrons ... Vincent Browne remembers.
I invited an attractive brunette, who was one of those regular patrons, to dance and, when she inquired where all the old fellas came from, I pretended not to know, lest we be estranged by my association with them.
When Liam Cosgrave, the then leader, joined the revelries, amid a flourish of trumpets, my companion was entirely baffled. Her initial impression was that Mr Cosgrave was the well-known comic film actor Charlie Chaplin, and that impression was reinforced when Mr Cosgrave got on the stage and proclaimed it was great so see so many young people "flockin' to Fine Gael".
I remembered that occasion yesterday lunchtime on hearing Enda Kenny on radio claiming the people were lying in wait for Fianna Fáil and the PDs. He thought the people were "crying out for a different style of leadership". I expected him to declare the young people were "flockin' to Fine Gael".
There is no evidence from the opinion poll published in the Irish Independent on Saturday that anyone is flockin' to Fine Gael. Only 21 per cent of the electorate said they now would vote Fine Gael in a general election - slightly worse than the disastrous performance in the election of 15 months ago. And Mr Kenny's own performance (26 per cent satisfaction rating) is far worse than that of any other party leader.
But the significance of the poll for Fine Gael is worse than the figures suggest.
At no time since it took office more than six years ago has the Government suffered such a battering. The economic boom has ended, the public finances are in crisis, the health service is in chaos, cutbacks in education are causing anger, and the debacle of the Laffoy commission could hardly be a more vivid testimony to its incompetence.
But it is unlikely that, when an election comes, things will be so bad for the Government and so propitious for the main opposition party. Therefore, the expectation must be that Fianna Fáil and the PDs would do somewhat better in a further election than the poll suggests and Fine Gael would do even worse.
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Fine Gael would drop a further eight seats in the next election.
Labour's performance is hardly inspiring either. At 15 per cent popular support, it is ahead of its election performance (11 per cent) but, with Fianna Fáil faring so badly at present (34 per cent, as compared with 41 per cent in the general election) and with Pat Rabbitte's personal rating falling from 52 per cent last March to 43 per cent now, there are no signs of a breakthrough of the kind the party enjoyed in 1992 with Dick Spring.
As of now, the overwhelming likelihood is Fianna Fáil will be in government again after the 2007 election and in coalition again with either the PDs or Sinn Féin. By 2007, Sinn Féin will have gone through the necessary hoops to distance itself from its paramilitary links and will be sufficiently acceptable to Fianna Fáil, especially if required to make up the numbers. It is not inconceivable that, by 2007, Sinn Féin will have overtaken Labour in popular support, if not Dáil seats.
And for those interested in the advancement of fairness in Irish society, it might not be a bad outcome.
Pat Rabbitte has moved Labour to the right to grab the middle ground that Fine Gael has lost. Amid all the evidence of growing inequality and a progressive decline in social expenditure, Labour is afraid to commit to even a modest redistributive programme that would entail higher expenditures on social welfare, health and education, accompanied by higher income taxes.
They will allow there has to be increases in corporation taxes and possibly green taxes but they have conceded the debate to the PDs on the issue of a low-tax economy, even though the evidence of low taxes being essential to economic and employment growth has now been impressively challenged by recent ESRI research (to which I shall return in a later column).
Ruairi O'Bradaigh said in 1986 of the Sinn Féin of Gerry Adams that, ultimately, it would go the way of "Official Sinn Féin" (a.k.a. Sinn Féin The Workers Party, a.k.a. the Workers Party, a.k.a. New Agenda, a.k.a. Democratic Left, a.k.a. the Labour Party).
That certainly is the trajectory but, before it morphs into another middle-ground, catch-all outfit, its current left-leaning orientation might nudge a coalition government of which it was part towards redressing the drift in the direction of a more unequal and unfair society. And Fianna Fáil, as usual, would let the smaller coalition partner do what it must.
vbrowne@irish-times.ie