The story of this election has been the failure of Fine Gael to sell itself as the nucleus of an alternative government, thus ensuring the writing is on the wall for Michael Noonan, writes Denis Coghlan
Voters may not want Fianna Fáil to get an overall Dáil majority but, if the trend of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll is maintained, the party has a real chance of breaking a 25-year drought.
Back in 1977, the then leader of Fianna Fáil, Jack Lynch, stunned the political establishment by taking more than 50 per cent of the vote for his party. This time, Bertie Ahern is unlikely to repeat that awesome performance and his tally of first preference votes may only be in the mid-40s. But transfer patterns from Independents and smaller parties, along with a weakened Fine Gael, could still give him his heart's desire.
The story of this election, so far, has been the failure of Fine Gael to sell itself as the nucleus of an alternative government. For the first time since the 1940s, the party's share of the vote is likely to drop below 25 per cent in a general election. And no matter how the figures are added up, a combination of two, or even three parties grouped around Fine Gael would fail to dent Fianna Fáil's lead.
The writing is on the wall for Michael Noonan's leadership. Even if the party avoids meltdown on Friday, the sheer scale of Fianna Fáil's dominance and the public's rejection of Mr Noonan as an alternative Taoiseach will bring out the knives within the party.
Mr Ahern may have run a carefully orchestrated, presidential-style campaign, but - for Fine Gael supporters - that will not explain or excuse the gap that has opened up between him and Mr Noonan in a public choice for the position of Taoiseach. For Mr Ahern to enjoy a support level of 69 per cent with the public, compared with 15 per cent for Mr Noonan, will be unacceptable to party members. Even within Fine Gael, only a small majority favoured him as Taoiseach over Mr Ahern. The men in grey suits cannot be long coming.
Fianna Fáil based its election campaign on a twin strategy: a promise that the good times would continue to roll and a threat that a loose grouping of Opposition parties, in government, would wreck the economy.
The electorate gratefully accepted assurances that last year's economic difficulties, caused by foot-and- mouth and the US recession, were in the past and it anticipated a return to growth. Then, as a worsening fiscal situation began to emerge in recent days, it appears to have sought security with a Government that has already delivered one economic miracle.
The alternative, an amalgam of Fine Gael, the Labour Party, the Green Party - and possibly others - was too risky and far too unstable for voters to contemplate. Whatever about Charlie McCreevy getting the State's finances into a mess; the best chance of recovery lay with a stable government that might take corrective action. At the same time, everybody was aware that Bertie Ahern disliked taking unpopular decisions, so those actions might not hurt too much. A hairshirt was probably off the menu.
By last Monday, four out of five voters had already made up their minds and were "fairly or absolutely certain" about the candidates they would support. In that context, last night's television debate probably came too late for Michael Noonan to change many minds. But the floating vote may yet make the difference between a majority and a minority Fianna Fáil government.
Based on simulated ballot papers carrying the names of candidates in all 42 constituencies, Fianna Fáil took 45 per cent of the vote, excluding "don't knows". This compares with 21 per cent for Fine Gael; 12 per cent for the Labour Party; 2 per cent for the Progressive Democrats; 3 per cent for the Green Party; 7 per cent for Sinn Féin and 10 per cent for Independents. Fine Gael has been squeezed on all sides. In 1997, it benefited considerably from a vote transfer pact with the Labour Party and regained eight of the seats it had lost in 1992. This time, it is fighting both Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party with equal vehemence. And Labour, having refused its former ally a voting pact, is determined to claw back those seats. With a solid showing of 12 per cent in the opinion polls, it is assured of gains. And its performance in Dublin will decide whether Ruairí Quinn will come under pressure at a later stage as party leader.
In two weeks, Labour has pushed up the level of its support in Dublin to 19 per cent and has extended its lead over Fine Gael from 2 to 3 percentage points. Fianna Fáil's level of support in the capital has remained firm at 40 per cent, while Sinn Féin's has fallen by two points to 8 per cent. The Green Party put on a point to 7 per cent.
Dublin will be the cockpit of this election and the results will decide if Fine Gael will be reduced to a largely rural-based party. With Labour, Sinn Féin and the Green Party coming up on the urban rails, and Fianna Fáil moving to a centre-right position, the party will have hard questions to answer about its position in political life.
Pressure on the Labour Party may not be so intense, but the political entrails of this election suggest Sinn Féin may have the capacity to challenge it successfully in working class areas, while offering a hard-core nationalism that could prove attractive to traditional Fianna Fáil voters.
The Green Party has the capacity to gain a few seats. But its appeal is relatively limited, with support largely confined to Dublin and Leinster.
The reluctance of the electorate to see Fianna Fáil returned to government without a "minder", is striking. It is a view held strongly by Fianna Fáil voters themselves, where less than one-in-three would favour the emergence of a majority government. It raises questions about Fianna Fáil reassurances that "bad behaviour" has been relegated to the past. And it adds weight to the Progressive Democrats' plea for inclusion in a future administration.
A Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats government is the favoured option of 28 per cent of the electorate, with the addition of Independents attracting a further 8 per cent. In contrast, a single party Fianna Fáil government takes 17 per cent support.
On those figures, and given the four point jump in Government satisfaction in two weeks, the electorate would happily settle for more of the same. Whether they get it is another matter.
Denis Coghlan is chief political correspondent of The Irish Times