In the best judgment of most commentators there appears to be no imminent threat to the ceasefire in the departure of a number of leading IRA members from the organisation or in the resignation of 12 members of Sinn Fein in the Dundalk area. There is disillusionment with the pace of the peace talks. There is dissatisfaction with the policies of the Sinn Fein leadership. But there appears to be no firm indication that the defectors intend to resume violence on their own or with others. Rather does it appear that they have simply opted out, leaving the so-called armed struggle behind them.
This, at least, is the situation for the present. A real fear must be that in time some, or all, of those who have now disengaged from the IRA may resume their earlier, violent course. It requires no great leap of the imagination to visualise circumstances in which this could happen. And it is not difficult to imagine how the threat of such a development might be exploited by some of those who are participating, with varying degrees of reluctance, in the talks process.
Last week the Sinn Fein president, Mr Adams, warned of the slow pace of the talks. Mr Adams's statement can be read as either a threat or an exhortation. In the unionist view, it is clearly the former and has to be seen in the context of the recent bombing in Derry. Mr David Trimble has underscored the significance of the use of Semtex in that attack and suggests it indicates an IRA provenance. The IRA may have called a ceasefire to enable Sinn Fein to attend political talks, according to Mr Trimble, but it is "contracting out" the campaign of violence. But informed analysts do not tend to support that analysis. There is no evidence to link Provisional IRA dissidents with the so-called Continuity IRA.
Yet the evidence of strains and division within the wider republican movement is plain to see. The Continuity IRA has at least some capacity to conduct aggressive operations and it is likely that this capacity will grow. There may be overtures to some of those who have stood down from the Provisional IRA to make common cause with those who do not consider themselves constrained by any ceasefire. And it is difficult to estimate how well Mr Adams and his lieutenants can cope with what looks increasingly like fragmentation of purpose if not an outright split within their organisation.
A quickening of the pace at the Stormont talks would probably help to stabilise the situation at least in the short term. That may well happen because the agenda phase will shortly yield to substantive discussions on political structures and arrangements. From the week after next the talks will begin to get down to bedrock issues. This is where the stresses and strains will multiply. There will be bleak and dark days, when seemingly irreconcilable positions are struck. Few will blame the politicians if they yield on occasion to instincts of pessimism or if, at times, they can sense only the very worst in their rivals' intentions and actions. Yet the process must go on. The political path to an agreement is the only alternative to hostility and violence which will go down from generation to generation. Today marks the 10th anniversary of the atrocity at Enniskillen when death and injury were visited upon innocent and unsuspecting members of one community. The dead and the injured, the bereaved and the traumatised of that day will be remembered and prayed for all over Ireland this weekend. Their sacrifice and suffering will not have been in vain if they serve to convince those who are participating in the talks at Stormont Castle buildings that they have the capacity and the duty to ensure that there is never a return to violence.