Ronnie Flanagan's rebuttal of Nuala O'Loan's accusations about the Omagh bomb investigation - a blow, not a knock-out punch - has sounded the bell for the final battle between the two, writes Chris Ryder
Early last summer a former police informer, known as Kevin Fulton, had convinced a British Sunday newspaper that if his advance warning had been properly followed up, the Omagh bombing in August 1998 could have been prevented.
However, before printing the story and handing over £50,000, the newspaper insisted on one final check. Contact was made with the recently-retired Chief Supt Eric Anderson to check the veracity of the story. The former RUC detective, despatched to the town to lead the investigation into the bombing hours after the death of the 29 victims and two unborn twins, who had broken down in tears at a news conference soon afterwards, unequivocally dismissed Fulton's claims as untrue.
The paper promptly spiked the story, the agent was denied his bounty and a course of events was triggered which has called into public question the credibility of the Chief Constable and the Police Ombudsman and could yet bring down the hard-won and still fragile edifices of the new beginning for policing in Northern Ireland.
A short time later, in July, the Irish edition of another national Sunday newspaper carried a front page story, based on Fulton's claim, despite the fact that some three months earlier, the same journalist, in the same paper, had described Fulton as a "notorious double-dealer behind a string of dubious hoaxes". The report was noted by Mrs Nuala O'Loan, the Police Ombudsman, who decided to use her considerable powers to launch an investigation into the claim and the RUC's performance before and after the attack.
Her highly-critical report was published in December, prompting an outcry, especially from the relatives of the Omagh victims, and causing the Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, to remark that he would publicly commit suicide if the report was proved to be both fair and rigorous. (The unfortunate suicide remark was quickly withdrawn.)
Yesterday, after weeks of round- the-clock work by a hand-picked team of 10 officers, Sir Ronnie published his detailed rebuttal. Its most striking feature is the unprecedented way its lifts the veil on the invisible frontline of the secret intelligence war in Northern Ireland to comprehensively discredit Fulton.
From 1992 to 1994, Fulton provided what the report describes as valuable intelligence to both the Special Branch and another agency, presumably MI5. Although this is not revealed, his information enabled the police to foil the assassination of one of the RUC's most senior and tenacious detectives.
However, after two years all contacts with him were severed because "he was becoming increasingly unreliable and deliberately fabricating information". Although Fulton continued to make contact with police officers - CID rather than Special Branch - his "product" was treated with caution because he was manufacturing information, passing material to the media and taping phone calls with police officers.
By August 2000, the police decided to end all contact with him "because the risks he posed . . . outweighed the gain". Sir Ronnie concludes that in all of Fulton's contacts with the police in the run-up to the Omagh bombing he did not know of the coming attack and could not in any way have helped to prevent it.
He goes on to rebut Mrs O'Loan's numerous criticisms in similarly factual detail, particularly her charge of "failure of leadership" which, he says, would be unsustainable by "any impartial and objective assessment".
"Of course, as with any investigation - particularly one of this magnitude - mistakes will have been made. I acknowledge that," he goes on to say, before remarking that "in the same way that the Police Service has always recognised that it would have lessons to learn from its handling of the Omagh investigation, it hopes that the Ombudsman will accept that her office has lessons to learn from the way her own investigation was conducted".
The publication of Sir Ronnie's rebuttal of Mrs O'Loan's report has sounded the bell for the final trial of the issues between the two. For Sir Ronnie, the initial omens are not encouraging. His five-hour encounter with the confused and emotional relatives of the Omagh victims yesterday was far from supportive. "We're by no means happy," said Mr Michael Gallagher. "It will not end here."
More worryingly, there are dangerous signs that the traditionally anti-police elements among republicans and nationalists are lining up behind Mrs O'Loan, while unionists are backing the police.
The ultimate arbiter in this confrontation will, however, be the Northern Ireland Policing Board, the new cross-community body of politicians and independent members whose statutory duty it is to ensure the "efficiency and effectiveness"' of the police service.
It has already received full copies of both reports and will convene for a special meeting on February 5th to quiz both Mrs O'Loan and Sir Ronnie. What it has to say thereafter will be the definitive word on the subject.
With so much at stake, it is unlikely to take sides but to seek a reconciliation of what Mrs O'Loan last night described as "clear disagreements on fundamental matters of fact".
It is clear from her statement that she does not think Sir Ronnie has made her position untenable or forced her to consider resignation. Indeed she begins by saying that it is important that a way be found to resolve the issues surrounding the bombing of Omagh.
The board is likely to take its cue from this set and set both on a more conciliatory course. It knows that any confrontational or over-critical reaction would inevitably divide its members, cause the board to implode and compromise the ever-quickening pace of police reform.
For his part, Sir Ronnie went out of his way to be humble and conciliatory at his Omagh news conference and he also decided not to engage in follow-up interviews afterwards lest an incautious remark might further inflame the embers of the controversy.
Privately he knows that this controversy will now hang indelibly over his reputation. By landing a blow on Mrs O'Loan rather than the knock-out that he first threatened, Sir Ronnie who will soon retire, has not only helped save but strengthen the new policing institutions.
Chris Ryder was a member of the Police Authority of Northern Ireland and is the author of The RUC 1922-1997 - a force under fire, published by Mandarin-