The easing of the points race has implications for our third-level colleges and the entire education system, writes Seán Flynn, Education Editor
The points race - and the feverish activity which accompanies it - has been part of the Irish education landscape for so long that many educationalists were reluctant to predict its demise.
Yet any lingering doubts have been cast aside by the first round of Central Applications Office (CAO) offers where points tumbled across a broad range of courses in arts, business, science and computers.
Points requirements for the largest undergraduate course in the State - arts at UCD - have fallen to 350. Law at UCD (now 495 points) has slipped below the 500 point barriers for the first time.
There was a sense that yesterday was a landmark day in Irish education. In a reversal of the pattern for much of the past 30 years, it is the students rather than the colleges who appear to be in control.
The declining number of school-leavers (just 51,000 sat the Leaving Cert this year) and the parallel explosion in the number of third-level places have combined to create a situation where the students call the shots.
In truth, some colleges are better prepared than others for this change.
UCD has spent over €250,000 marketing it new modularised Horizons programme in a bid to attract students. The campaign, featuring billboard advertisements, has paid off handsomely. Last year applications for the college rose by 10 per cent.
Other universities have followed with vigorous, if less expensive, marketing campaigns or new initiatives.
NUI Maynooth, one of the most progressive third-level colleges, has sought students from the working-class suburbs across west Dublin by providing transport and a range of support services for those who have no history of third-level education in their families. It is meeting the fall in demand by bringing non-traditional students to its campus.
Trinity, which has promised to retain 15 per cent of its places for non-traditional students, is well placed to weather any storm. The prestige of the college means it is probably the only third-level institution which is immune from the pressure to fill places evident elsewhere. Bucking the overall trend, CAO points for most of its courses actually increased this year.
Other universities will have to change and adopt. Despite its very strong reputation, NUI Galway saw points drop in no less than 29 higher degree courses. The Dublin Institute of Technology saw points dropped in 23 courses.
While the universities will suffer some collateral damage, it is the institutes of technology (ITs) and the post-Leaving Cert sector (PLC) which could face the greatest struggle in filling places.
The 14 institutes has been rightly praised for their dynamic role in rasing skill levels but with student demand falling some will struggle to fill places.
Many of the ITs - formerly the regional technical colleges - were established on foot of local political pressure for a university. Despite this inauspicious background, many ITs - like those in Waterford, Galway/Mayo, Dundalk and Carlow - have proved their mettle and established strong local and national reputations.
However, as the points race eases, all of the ITs are under pressure.
Consider the numbers. More than 36,000 offers were made yesterday for ordinary degree and certificate courses, mainly in ITs. Yet based on last year's trends, less than a third of this figure will be filled at ordinary degree and certificate level. This must raises questions about the long-term future of some courses offered by the ITs.
Yet there are lessons for the ITs in the CAO first round. Those who have tailored their courses to meet the real needs of today's school-leavers have no problem filling places.
Some examples serve to illustrate the point. A new course in forensic investigation at Sligo IT requires 390 points, 40 more than arts at UCD. Science (health and leisure) at Tralee is up 55 points, reflecting the huge interest in this area. Similarly, points for a course in TV and film production in Galway/Mayo IT requires 410 points.
The fall in points elsewhere - and the ability of virtually all students to secure places through the CAO - also raises questions about the huge post-Leaving Cert (PLC) sector, which offers thousands of places every year.
It is also a sobering reality for the scores of colleges offering repeat Leaving Cert courses. This year the number of repeats was down to under 2,000, down from a high of 8,000 a decade ago. Students are voting with their feet. Why bother to repeat when over 75 per cent will get one of their top three CAO choices this week?
The end of the points race may be very good news for students, their harassed parents and for teachers, but there is one sector which could feel a draught - the so-called grinds industry.
The feeding frenzy over points has been very good news for the grind schools in the past two decades. The brand leader, the Institute of Education in Dublin's Leeson Street, generates over €10 million in tuition fees alone each year.
A plethora of other grind schools has been established in Dublin and in every provincial city as the hysteria about the points race racheted up every year.
However this morning many parents will be asking themselves an obvious question - why should I pay for grinds if my son or daughter will be able to secure places on courses which reflect their natural ability?
All of this is very good news for the education system at second level, which one could say has been hyperventilating for two decades. The end of the points race will cool the temperature and bring some badly-needed balance to the system.
Remember all that lofty stuff about education being about more than CAO points?
Maybe we are going back to an education system where this is actually a reality.