IN CONCEDING to the Irish Farmers Association that Ireland would veto an unacceptable agricultural deal in the current World Trade Organisation negotiations, Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday staunched a bleeding wound in the Government's referendum strategy on the Lisbon Treat. But, he made himself a potential hostage to other opportunist interest groups in future.
Lisbon and the WTO are not connected legally but have been politically aligned by a vigorous but misleading IFA campaign. Ministers have up to now resisted linking the two, to protect wider Irish trading interests and to avoid narrowing their negotiating options unnecessarily and prematurely.
The small print of yesterday's Government announcement is important. It points out that Lisbon does not change existing arrangements and that a veto would arise only if an agricultural deal unacceptable to Ireland is actually put to a vote. Normally such votes are not presented like this, since consensus is sought; and it is up to the Government to make a judgment on the overall acceptability of any outcome. But if this is so why could the concession not have been made earlier, before the IFA built up such a head of steam, amounting to a stand-off? Its leaders are more able to bank such a promise. It looks like an unprincipled political U-turn to assure their support for a Yes vote in next week's referendum. This is a risky approach, giving an impression of weakness, irresolution and defensiveness in the face of strong political pressure.
Farmers have been among the major beneficiaries of Ireland's EU membership, whether in terms of direct transfers, guaranteed markets or beneficial regulation. Their willingness to threaten the EU's future effective functioning by campaigning against Lisbon shows their loyalty to the system is heavily conditional on maintaining these benefits.
Nevertheless, circumstances and interests change. We are in the middle of a world food crisis, the Common Agricultural Policy is up for immediate review and longer-term transformation, and neither particular agricultural nor economic interests should be taken for granted in world trade negotiations. Specifically, the IFA campaign has been geared to protect beef and sheepmeat producers, rather than dairy or cereal ones, who would have much more to gain from a successful trade deal. Ireland's overall economic interest would certainly benefit from a positive outcome on services.
Mr Cowen expects yesterday's bargain will see farmers and those influenced by them vote in favour of Lisbon next week. That is certainly in their and the country's economic and political interest. It is up to the IFA to deliver on its word in the final days of the campaign with a positive effort matching its mobilisation on this issue. The Yes campaign needs to use its remaining time to convince voters that Ireland's influence in the EU is best preserved through constructive participation, garnering most from the overall changes the treaty makes to guarantee its effectiveness in world affairs.