After a weekend of reflection on the voters' rejection of the Nice Treaty, the Government now faces the difficult task of finding ways to address the consequences for Ireland and the European Union. Today's meeting of EU foreign ministers will begin the task of identifying possible options, looking towards the European Council at Gothenberg next weekend to clarify how to to proceed legally and politically.
The options range from the maximal one of abandoning the Nice Treaty and its reforms preparing for EU enlargement, to the minimal one of clarifying what the treaty's rejection means for Ireland and adopting political declarations on matters of concern, which would be put to the people in another referendum. Time is needed to consider the issue calmly and carefully, taking full account of the people's decision and its impact on Ireland's international standing.
This was a decisive result, but based on a turnout of little more than one third of the electorate. Clearly there was a sharp swing against the Government's case in favour of the treaty. Clearly too, the No campaign systematically outshone its opponents in terms of energy and conviction. The blame for that rests squarely with the Government. It failed to campaign effectively or to mobilise when it became obvious anecdotally, and in the second Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published on June 2nd, that the referendum could be lost. The result indicates a substantial abstention of potential Yes voters because they were not mobilised or were dissatisfied with the information made available. It reveals a much more successful mobilisation of No voters, along with a definite swing towards that position by some people who have previously supported EU treaties.
The resulting damage to Ireland's international reputation as a state committed to constructive European integration and co-operation has been substantial and could be long-lasting. That fact was underestimated by those who abstained and by many of those who voted No. Such short-sighted introspection seems to accompany economic growth and greater prosperity. It will be difficult to reverse the impression of an electorate driven selfishly by changing material interests, especially among the states lining up to join the EU, which have up to now regarded Ireland as a natural ally. But it is possible to reverse this damage if the result is correctly evaluated. The result does not contain a mandate for sweeping rejection of the Nice Treaty by Ireland or the 14 other EU member-states - unless it were to stimulate similar rejections elsewhere. It points more to an Irish, than a pan-EU resolution, of the issues at stake. Enlargement should proceed within the framework of the structural and institutional reforms contained in the treaty.
The Government should explore ways of addressing voters' concerns on sovereignty, democratic accountability, the rights of smaller states, military neutrality and other issues identified in the campaign, through negotiations with its partners and through political dialogue with the electorate. In due course, these assurances should be put to the people for approval or rejection in another referendum. That would feed into the forthcoming crucial debate on the political and constitutional future of the enlarged European Union so that it can unite the continent democratically under the rule of law. If that historic task is presented with vision and conviction, the Irish people will respond positively to the message - so long as they are satisfied their interests are properly safeguarded.