TELEVISED IMAGES of a caged Hosni Mubarak and his sons on trial this week seven months after the January uprising electrified the Arab world, reminding many of Egypt’s centrality in its cultural and political life.
Coming at a really testing time for the transition beyond autocracy not only in Egypt, but in Syria and Libya and less dramatically yet just as significantly in many other states, the trial prompts the question of whether their great common slogan – “the people want to bring down the regime” – still makes sense. Is there indeed an Arab Spring of democratisation affecting the whole region?
The phrase implies a unitary and naively optimistic direction of political change; but stalemate, impasse and different national contexts and histories currently seem to belie any such trajectory. Some speak not of democratic revolutions but rather of reconstituted autocracies, civil wars, victimised minorities and emerging Islamic movements dedicated to very different ends.
Periods of great political change are normally prolonged. They ebb and flow messily and can be viciously violent. Revolutionary upheavals happen when governments and regimes are widely seen as unjust and inept, key elite groups like the military are alienated, there is a broad-based mobilisation of opposition forces and international interventions are not decisive on one side or the other.
Such conditions are present throughout the contemporary Arab world. So too are the factors which have given commonality to demands for democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Growing inequalities, rising prices for life’s necessities, burgeoning youth unemployment, a revolution in telecommunications and social media and a revulsion against corruption are found in most Arab states, their effects compounded by stagnant and repressive regimes. But these conflicts are fought out in particular national contexts. Jordan, Oman, Algeria or Morocco differ from Tunisia, Yemen, Libya or Syria, however much they are influenced by similar events and ideas. Political change requires hard work and effective organisation by opposition groups, while those in power will seize opportunities to hold on to it. Thus the Egyptian military and the Muslim Brotherhood see the possibility of an alliance against secular democrats, who are less prepared for presidential elections in November. But Mubarak would probably not be on trial now had the momentum of street protest not been maintained by those who want more radical change.
That urge for change driven by educated, middle class and youthful crowds is a common theme of all the uprisings, although these are by no means the only social actors involved. Workers seeking higher wages in Egypt, farmers suffering from drought in Syria, reformist and fundamentalist Islamic movements and disaffected army and police personnel in various states are also part of the story. Their sheer courage and mutual interaction throughout the Arab world will ensure this democratic awakening keeps its dictators guessing – and trembling.