The crisis in the Great Lakes region of Africa has deepened gravely with the opening up of conflict between Rwanda and Zaire, fighting between Hutu and Tutsi forces in the Kivu mountain area, and now the flight of an estimated 350,000 people, from these confrontations. The regional consequences could bet profoundly destabilising of these developments converge with an unravelling of political structures in Zaire, a huge resource rich state whose ailing lead General Mobuto Sese Seko, is still convalescing in Switzerland after an operation for prostate cancer.
The crisis originated with the huge exodus of Hutu refugees that followed the genocide in Rwanda during the summer of 1994. This captured the imagination and sympathy of a world that had been numbed by the events in Rwanda itself. The genocide proceeded shamefully unhindered by international action or sanctions, until it was brought to an end by, the military victory of the Rwandese Patriotic Front. It took some time for the political reality of the huge refugee wave to become apparent. For the leadership of the Hutu extremists who had organised the genocide were fully protected in the refugee camps - and sustained by the flow of international and non governmental aid that was sent to them.
They took the opportunity to regroup and used the camps as bases from which to mount counter attacks on the new Rwandan government and to disrupt successive efforts to repatriate the refugees. As this became more obvious, and increasingly dangerous, it led to the withdrawal of non governmental organisations, including several Irish ones, from the camps. The conflict has now spread into eastern Zaire itself, as the extremists, in alliance with local politicians, targeted Tutsi ethnic groups in the Kivu mountain region in an attempt to expel them. Their response has led to formation of a guerilla army, the Banyamulenge, based on these farming peoples which has had extraordinary successes in taking on the extremist army and their Zairean army collaborators. Their conflict has in turn drawn in other elements of the Zairean army and almost certainly although this is denied by the Rwandan authorities - elements of the Rwandan armed forces too.
From his sick bed President Mobuto has now ordered Zairean leaders and troops to, give the highest priority to maintaining the country's territorial integrity. The introduction of a state to state element into the conflict could prove to be explosive, particularly if it were to coincide with President Mobuto's loss of power. Were Zaire to be threatened with disintegration, the consequences would be highly dangerous on top of the appalling humanitarian problems thrown up by the latest mass flight of refugees.
African and international political and diplomatic action is urgently required to prevent such an outcome. The Organisation of African Unity, working through regional states, has become much more effective recently in brokering sanctions and negotiations in Burundi, helped by useful initiatives from the European Union's envoy in the region, Mr Aldo Agelli, who has been working closely with the Irish EU Presidency. They will all need to work flat out to head off this latest deepening of the region's conflicts.