It is hardly credible now, less than six months later, that some well placed individuals in the national food industry saw the British admissions about BSE last March as a major opportunity for Irish beef exports. The reality, as we now know, was very different. The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Yates, was closer to the mark when he said of the British government's mishandling of the early stages of the crisis that "ten years of damage was done to Europe's red meat industry in two days in the Commons".
Irish farmers, like their colleagues in France and Germany, are in a better position than most to know that the primary element in the crisis is politics - in the broadest sense - rather than public health. This is not to understate the health risk. If the link between BSE in cattle and CJD in human beings has not been positively demonstrated, there is at the very least a presumptive link in which the long germination stage of the disease, and the impossibility of drawing a clear line between meals long eaten and the onset of symptoms, engender fear of the unknown rather than reassurance. Mr Pat Upton TD who argued in these columns recently that the risk involved in eating beef in the present uncertainty, is no different from all the other risks of daily life may be right, but the doubts will almost certainly persist. Since consumers have an infinite variety of choice, the welfare of the beef producer is not likely to be a high priority.
Nor do the deliberate attempts to deepen confusion offer much hope for restoring confidence. The very people in Britain who argue most vociferously that no scientific proof exists that BSE can be transmitted to humans are the first to leap on a scientific report that seems to prove the opposite. But the European Commission must remain sceptical in spite of the findings announced on Wednesday by an Oxford based group suggesting that the cattle cull in Britain is unnecessary. Too much is at stake for the other member states to allow a change of course at this stage.
For Irish farmers, whose reliance on beef grew inexorably for most of the last 25 years, the problems fall into two categories. The first was the immediate crisis, caused by the abrupt fall off in demand for beef in European markets like Germany and in the relatively new ones developed in the Middle East and elsewhere outside the EU. That has been met, inadequately, by means of the intervention mechanism, as well as a disastrous fall in prices. Intervention, however, was never intended to cope with a collapse of sales as comprehensive and widespread as what is now being experienced and no long term solution for the threat now facing the industry can be based on it.
The follow on effect for the cycle of beef production is profound and deeply worrying. Consumption of beef in most European markets is well below pre crisis levels and, on the most optimistic basis, will take several years to recover. External markets have been similarly affected and their future development is unpredictable. Cattle cannot be reared speculatively for non existent customers, and the whole delicate structure of production, involving different stages of feeding and selling on, is at risk. The social and economic consequences are difficult to estimate, but it is certainly clearer now than six months ago that they will he long lasting and probably entail permanent changes in Irish agriculture. Is the Government, and more especially the Minister, ready to define the issues and make preliminary proposals to meet the challenge?