Day by day the French parliamentary elections are becoming more interesting. The latest opinion polls indicate there is a real possibility that a rainbow coalition of Socialists, Communists and Greens could secure a small majority. Arguments about the advisability of President Chirac's decision to call the early election are breaking out on the right, while he and his prime minister, Mr Alain Juppe, are taking more and more criticism for their handling of the campaign.
Overshadowing the election is the question of whether France will qualify for membership of the single currency due to be launched on January 1st, 1999. President Chirac and Mr Juppe calculated it was better to have the election out of the way now rather than give the left the opportunity to chip away at the austerity policies they say are needed to ensure qualification over the next 10 months. At first, this looked like an intelligent strategy. But high unemployment and uncertainty about the nature and extent of European integration have opened up a real debate on the single currency and whether the particular model of economic policy offered by the government to achieve it is worth the sacrifices involved.
The Socialist Party leader, Mr Lionel Jospin, says it is not, more and more explicitly. "Those who accept the euro unconditionally, those who accept Europe's drift towards liberalism, in violation of the spirit and the letter of Maastricht, are the gravediggers of the European ideal," he argues. His party's manifesto promises to create 700,000 publicly financed jobs, stop the planned privatisations of major businesses and introduce a 35 hour working week in place of the existing 39 hours. It is difficult to see how this could be done within the time scale and constraints laid down in the treaty, but such commitments are part of the price the Socialists must pay for a coalition with the Communist Party and the Greens.
This switch of emphasis by the Socialists could change the European as well as the French political landscape were their coalition to win the elections on May 25th and June 1st and force President Chirac to govern with them for his remaining five years in office. It could open up a fissure over the single currency and the lack of adequate resources and political structures to back it up. It is a difficult time for the Socialists because the single currency project is so associated with them through Jacques Delors and Francois Mitterrand. Mr Jospin has tried to explain that a left wing government would be obliged to follow the line of the major party comprising it.
But this is unconvincing, as Mr Juppe has been quick to point out. He has posed a series of questions for the opposition party, including how it would avoid a crisis on Europe by including the Communists in government. Would taxes be raised, would repeal of anti immigration laws greatly increase the numbers of people coming to France and would the Socialists suspend or cancel the planned privatisations? Mr Jospin promises answers to these questions in coming days. He clearly senses that victory is possible and has talked openly about political realignment in Europe, following Labour's victory in Britain. If he were to win there would be a knock on effect in Germany, where the Social Democrats are also tempted to alter their uncritical support for a single currency achieved through austerity policies. A period of political turbulence can be readily foreseen in such scenarios.