The French poll

The political and media consensus yesterday was that Wednesday evening's big television debate between Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène…

The political and media consensus yesterday was that Wednesday evening's big television debate between Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal was a draw, unlikely to upset the small but clear lead he enjoys over her ahead of Sunday's presidential elections. An opinion poll said it has reinforced his chances of winning.

It would be foolish nonetheless to underestimate how their encounter may have shifted attitudes among the many undecided voters who may be more impressed by Ms Royal's combative self-confidence than by Mr Sarkozy's success in controlling his sharp temper. It was probably her best performance during the campaign and could give her the boost she needs. In a similar contest in 1981, François Mitterrand came from behind to beat Valéry Giscard d'Estaing in the second round. On this occasion Ms Royal must gain a high proportion of the votes that went in the first round to the centrist François Bayrou, while Mr Sarkozy must hold on to extreme right-wing supporters of Jean-Marie Le Pen.

The debate was the first of its kind for 12 years and proved to be an intense, fascinating and increasingly snappy encounter over two hours and 40 minutes. Half of France's 46 million voters watched it, mirroring the high public engagement that has been a feature of the campaign.

In various ways the popular demand for real change in the methods and substance of French politics was ill-served during the early and later stages of the campaign because of ill-focused debate and fragmented issues. The first round result re-established the basic right-left cleavage in French politics that was interrupted in 2002 when Jacques Chirac overwhelmingly defeated Mr Le Pen. It has been reinforced over the last 12 days.

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Two very different programmes are on offer, supported by two contrasting personalities. Mr Sarkozy blames the left for most of the ills facing French society, from unemployment to undue statism and an intellectual elite drawing baleful inspiration from the revolutionary events of 1968. He attacks the 35-hour week and puts forward a radical programme of change to be rapidly implemented if he wins. He and his supporters are quite ready to take on the inevitable social protests that would ensue - indeed they seem to relish the prospect.

Ms Royal insists that economic reform must be accompanied and will be encouraged by social protection. She projects a much more caring approach, demonstrating a greater capacity for competent leadership as the campaign concluded. Whoever wins will have a mandate for change.