If a convincing argument was required to favour the regionalisation of the State for future EU structural and cohesion funding, it is to be found in the latest unemployment figures. The Central Statistics Office has highlighted the uneven growth pattern of the so-called "Celtic Tiger", with Dublin and the MidWest regions powering ahead while the border and western counties languish in the economic doldrums. During the past five years, the unemployment rate in Dublin and the Mid-West has fallen by 30 per cent or more, while the figures for the most deprived areas of the country ranged from 11 to 20 per cent. The pattern accelerated in the past year with 40 per cent of the overall unemployment reduction taking place in Dublin.
Five years ago Ireland had the second-highest jobless rate in the European Union, at 15.7 per cent, and nearly 300,000 people were on the live register. Now the figure is less than 220,000 and falling rapidly. In the past year alone, the number of persons signing on the dole has fallen by 30,154, the largest annual decrease ever recorded. Almost three-quarters of these were men and practically all were drawn from the ranks of the long-term unemployed. The standardised unemployment rate for September was down to 8.8 per cent.
But that is only part of the positive picture. The unemployment statistics do not measure the increasing number of people, including school leavers and returned emigrants, now working within the economy. Evidence of their contribution is found in the extremely healthy condition of the State's finances where tax revenues are at record levels and growth patterns still head the European league table. All of this is marvellous news for the Government and for the country. And Ministers take obvious pleasure from being in the right place at the right time. The Government Chief Whip, Mr Seamus Brennan, welcomed the lowest, seasonally adjusted, September unemployment figures for 14 years. And the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy released the strongest exchequer figures on record, which are likely to generate a budget surplus of £800m for 1998.
Even as the good times roll, there are thunderclouds on the horizon in the shape of a threatening world recession and collapsing financial markets. In that context, Mr McCreevy spoke of the need to produce a cautious Budget in early December. Such caution is warranted. But officials at his Department still predict strong growth in the economy in 1999.