AS THE Government faces three pivotal challenges that will influence the direction and welfare of this State for years to come – the National Asset Management Agency, the Lisbon Treaty and the December budget – it has lost the confidence of voters. The Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, published today, finds that three quarters of the electorate now favour a change in government. In such circumstances, it can only be hoped that the Coalition Government has the authority and that voters have the common sense to realise that a resolution of these difficult issues are in the national interest at home and abroad. The question of party politics and how they affect the fortunes of Fianna Fáil is immaterial.
Given the drubbing the Coalition parties received in the local and European elections, they might have hoped the anger of voters had been assuaged, especially as government support tends to revive during an extended holiday period. On this occasion, however, controversy over the McCarthy report dealing with reductions in public spending; proposals for taxation reform and a rescue of the banks through Nama have consistently reminded voters that leaner days lie ahead. As a result, public satisfaction with the Government has fallen to 11 per cent and approval for Mr Cowen has sunk to a new low of 15 per cent.
The extreme volatility of the situation is reflected in the facts that almost three-quarters of Green Party supporters now favour a change of government and a majority of members are dissatisfied with John Gormley’s leadership. Support for Mr Cowen within Fianna Fáil is even more problematical. These findings will place intense pressure on the Coalition parties as they revise the programme for government; consider the terms of Nama legislation and prepare for a testing budget. The alternative to co-operation may well involve political destruction because Fianna Fáil trails both Fine Gael and the Labour Party in popular support and the Green Party remains stuck at disastrous local election levels.
A general note of dissatisfaction with all party leaders comes through in this poll. Mr Cowen may be the most obvious casualty, but Enda Kenny’s public satisfaction rating has fallen back to 2003 levels, even as support for Fine Gael has risen by 50 per cent. That dichotomy is likely to contribute to ongoing soul-searching within the party. Eamon Gilmore of the Labour Party, while shedding two points, remains the most popular of his peers.
Having emerged as the largest party in the State following the local and European elections, Fine Gael has maintained its position. But, its former taoiseach, Garret FitzGerald, has suggested a moment of mature reflection on the national issues now confronting us. Voter uncertainty is reflected in Fine Gael’s two-point decline; in Sinn Féin’s rise to 10 per cent and in a steady drift towards Independent candidates. The party that has dominated Irish politics for more than 70 years now lags behind Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Sinn Féin in Dublin constituencies.