Mr Bob Dole, the leading Republican candidate, who has squeaked through as winner of the Iowa caucuses, faces a decisive test in New Hampshire next Tuesday. If he fails to gain a clear cut victory there, precedent suggests that there will be a ruthless coming to account in subsequent primary hurdles. Mr Dole's principal rivals Mr Pat Buchanan and Mr Steve Forbes look most unlikely opponents of Mr Bill Clinton, who is unchallenged within his own party and in a strong position to exploit all the advantages of incumbency against this Republican disarray. Mr Lamar Alexander is therefore emerging fast as an alternative.
Mr Dole has not so far campaigned effectively in New Hampshire on the contrary, he has failed to marshal popular enthusiasm and headline grabbing attention to match Mr Forbes, whose simplistic flat tax proposals failed to appeal in Iowa. Mr Buchanan comes out much stronger and more confidently from, these caucuses, having captured support from Catholic and evangelical right wing voters. There is a significant constituency for his platform among Republican voters.
He is vehemently opposed to free trade, which he, says destroys jobs in the United States he would clamp down on illegal Mexican immigration for the same reasons and he would reverse the tide of "secular humanism" in the public school system. Although a skilled and experienced publicist, Mr Buchanan seems incapable of commanding the widespread support that would be necessary to capture the Republican nomination, not least because he is considered unelectable by the influential economic liberals in the corporate sector whose agenda he opposes.
Attention has therefore shifted towards Mr Lamar Alexander, the former governor of Tennessee, who polled a respectable third in Iowa. He combines a non metropolitan appeal with very considerable experience of government in Washington and a stolid platform of policy closer to the Republican right wing mainstream, which he shares with Mr Dole, than the other runners up in Iowa. Mr Alexander appeals to those who consider Mr Dole too much the Washington insider, too old for the job, too unappealing a personality, or, decisively, incapable of defeating Mr Clinton. The latest statistics indicate that the US economy is performing relatively well always a good sign for an incumbent, even if the plaudits have to be earned during the campaigning.
It would not be the first time that such a dark horse has emerged at precisely this point in the campaign. The slogan "Alexander Beats Clinton" may be a telling one in New Hampshire. Mr Alexander's strategists calculate that Mr Buchanan will take votes from Mr Dole there, that supporters of Mr Phil Gramm will gravitate to him, that Mr Forbes will fall flat and that by the time of Super Tuesday on March 12th he will have emerged the clear front runner. The question the Republican Party would have to face if any of Mr Dole's current opponents outperforms him is whether such a candidate would have a chance of beating Mr Clinton, the basic assumption on which Mr Alexander's strategy is predicated. If not, the whole campaign could be thrown open once again, to the likes of Mr James Baker, Mr Jack Kemp or even Mr Colin Powell.
These would be long shots for the Republicans it may now be too late for such outsiders to muster the support and the finance required. And given the failure of the radical Republican agenda represented by Mr Newt Gingrich, which has only become fully apparent in recent weeks, Mr Clinton looks in a much stronger position to secure a second term, so long as he does not fall victim to complacency.