The recently published higher education survey Who Went to College in 2004 confirms the geographical pattern of entry to higher education that has emerged from earlier studies of this subject.
All but one of the six poorest counties in our State are still to be found among those counties which have an entry rate to higher education that is at least 10 percentage points above the national average.
By contrast Dublin, with by far the highest average disposable income per head, and hosting three out of seven universities and four out of 14 ITs, has the fifth lowest entry rate to higher education amongst our 26 counties.
The authors have used regression analysis to try to explain what on the face of it seems a somewhat perverse relationship between per capita disposable income and higher-education rates. Factors that emerge from this analysis as favouring a higher rate of university entry include, most obviously, proximity to such an institution, but also the presence of a more educated population in the county in question, and a high proportion of the population engaged in farming.
Although apparently not emerging from this regression analysis, I would feel that the absence of good employment opportunities within a county might also be a factor encouraging school-leavers to enter higher education, with a view to qualifying them eventually for employment outside their area. By contrast, ready local access to post-school employment may discourage entry to higher education.
The latter factor would certainly help to explain the low level of higher-education entry on the part of young people in Dublin and Louth, whilst the former would help to explain the high level of entry from counties in the west. In western counties, high rates of emigration in the past may have left a residue of greater parental concern for children to "better" themselves, and also, perhaps, a greater willingness on the part of children to leave home for this purpose.
However, there also exists a marked preference for higher education as near as possible to home. The fact that 86 per cent of Cork university students choose universities in Cork or Limerick, and that similar proportion of Dublin students choose university institutions in their own county, while 60 per cent of those from Galway select NUI Galway, stands in marked contrast to what appears to be a strong preference by English students for universities that are a good distance from their homes.
The contrast between higher-education entry rates from different postal districts of Dublin remains as marked as ever. These rates range from well over 80 per cent in the case of Dublin 6, 14 and 18 (the southeast quadrant of the city), down to less than 12 per cent in the case of Dublin 10 (Ballyfermot). Such an extreme seven-to-one variation between higher-education rates of different postal districts makes a powerful case for much more targeting of disadvantaged areas than any minister for education has yet been willing to authorise.
It is, of course, clear that the factors influencing the scale of entry to higher education have their roots both in the background from which students come and in their earlier educational experience. For examination of surveys of school-leavers shows that there are marked differences in Leaving Certificate exam performance as between children drawn from different socio-economic groups.
While the difference between the proportions of children of higher professionals and of manual workers completing the Leaving Certificate is not huge - 90 per cent as against 77 per cent - the contrast between different socio-economic groups in relation to the number of honours received is sharp.
As between these two socio-economic groups, 42 per cent of the children of higher professionals secured five honours in the Leaving Certificate, whereas less than 15 per cent of those from semi-skilled or unskilled backgrounds secured an equivalent result. Thus, through the operation of the points system the future careers of members of these two socio-economic groups were largely predetermined before they ever reached higher education.
The HEA study also identifies some changing patterns in second-level and higher education. Since 1998 Leaving Certificate students have been taking about 10 per cent less subjects in that exam, and since 1986 there has been a steady decline, from 24 per cent to 15 per cent, in the incidence of higher-education entrants repeating that exam.
There has been some increase in the age of entry to higher education. Since 1998 the numbers entering under the age of 18 have dropped from 19 per cent to 13.5 per cent and the numbers entering at age 20 or above have climbed from 10 per cent to almost 20 per cent. This shift may reflect a larger proportion of school-leavers taking a gap year.
Finally, this survey confirms the growing educational differential between boys and girls. Whereas 84 per cent of girls sit the Leaving only 78 per cent of boys do so, and 11 per cent less boys than girls enter third level. The scale of this female/male differential is now disturbingly large, and failure to address it could in the future start to cause problems in our society.
This report provides a solid basis upon which to review many aspects of our educational system. In particular the role of institutes of technology merits further examination. A major factor in their establishment was the need to facilitate widely-spread industrial development by ensuring that new industries in every part of the country could be provided with staff trained to meet their particular needs. But as we move from the industrial phase of economic development towards one in which growth is coming increasingly from the services sector, which may require different kinds of skill, a reorientation of the ITs may be needed.
There is evidence that these institutions have been endeavouring to meet this changing need, but perhaps not fast enough to enable them to hold their own.
The decline in the numbers leaving second-level schools, consequent on the decline in the birth rate after 1980, is going to continue for a further six or seven years. By virtue of the continuing unfulfilled demand for their courses, the universities are largely protected from the consequences of this decline, but this continuing fall in the number of school-leavers may make it difficult for some of the ITs to hold their numbers in the years ahead.