Time is nearly up for a deal

Does the Northern peace process leave you a little jaded these days? Don't feel guilty if you harbour such sentiments from across…

Does the Northern peace process leave you a little jaded these days? Don't feel guilty if you harbour such sentiments from across the Border. Everyone up here is equally disillusioned. Even the staunchest supporters of the Belfast Agreement have grown weary of the endless cycle of crises and crux negotiations, writes Suzanne Breen.

As the Taoiseach, Mr Blair and the parties continue their eleventh-hour discussions, most people have simply switched off. In pubs, taxi depots and cafes, in-depth analysis focuses on the race for the English Premiership, not that for the peace deal. The strategies of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger arouse much more interest than those of Gerry Adams and David Trimble.

Apart from the great and the good, nobody really misses the Assembly and the Executive. In theory, nationalists are keener to have the institutions restored. But in practice, it makes little difference to life in the Bogside or Ballymurphy whether it's David Trimble and his team administering services or Paul Murphy and his. There wasn't a noticeable improvement or deterioration in hospitals, schools and the like under devolution. Sammy and Sinéad didn't bring home any more in their wage packet.

Indifference to the current talks is prevalent in both communities, but there are differences. In London and Washington the Provisional IRA is blamed for the impasse, but not among Northern nationalists. The SDLP will be on dodgy ground if it continues pointing the finger at the Provos for not living up to their responsibilities. For ordinary Catholics, unionists are solely at fault.

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From the leafy suburbs of south Belfast to the grittier streets of the Short Strand, nationalists dismiss demands for further IRA statements and decommissioning as a smokescreen. They say the silence of republican guns should be enough. They have never really warmed to David Trimble and they don't believe he and his party are committed to the peace process.

While both governments demand more from the IRA, there is probably nothing the Provos could now do that would satisfy most ordinary unionists. Alleged IRA activities in Colombia, Castlereagh and Stormont have annihilated trust. Further decommissioning will not convince because unionists will say the Provos can easily buy more weapons. IRA words are deemed as valuable as Iraq's currency. When IRA members continue gathering intelligence, seasoned observers believe it's just occupational therapy for the rank-and-file. But when lists of "targets" are found in republican areas, unionists see a real threat.

Mr Blair hasn't definitely said the May 29th Assembly elections will go ahead. If they do, the DUP will make massive gains and could overtake the Ulster Unionists. Sinn Féin should undoubtedly pull even further ahead of the SDLP and firmly establish its dominance within nationalism. Since the IRA ceasefire and Sinn Féin's gradual movement away from traditional republicanism, there has been a greening of moderate elements in the Catholic community. "You can be as nationalist as you like now and nobody says you're a Provo," remarked one Catholic graduate.

The IRA leadership's refusal so far to give Blair and Trimble what they need is a temporary blip. The Provos have travelled too far down the constitutional road to turn back. The top brass have no intention of swapping their smart suits for combat gear. The IRA leadership is most likely refusing to budge because it sees no logic in doing so before an election.

Major movement on decommissioning and stating the war is over make no sense if Mr Trimble won't be the leading voice of unionism post-May 29th. A victorious DUP would demand a renegotiation of the agreement, and what would the IRA have left to bargain with then?

There is also considerable discontent within IRA grassroots, particularly in Tyrone and Fermanagh. Republican sources say that at one meeting Martin McGuinness was told that if Sinn Féin signed up to the new Police Service of Northern Ireland, he needn't come back. Gerry Adams was sporting an Easter lily a fortnight before Easter - a sure sign the republican base needs reassurance.

While last week's publication of the Stevens report, which found widespread collusion between elements in the security forces and loyalist paramilitaries, provides valuable propaganda for Sinn Féin, it also strengthens those within republicanism who argue that the police force is unreformable and nationalists should never support it.

Time is rapidly running out for a deal to rescue the agreement. Sinn Féin says the two governments should publish their blueprint for restoring devolution. But the Provisional IRA refuses to allow anyone - including its own members - to see its statement to the governments. Isn't it time all parties in this process engaged in more transparency and openness? Maybe that would give us something substantial to analyse in the pub.