A number of unrelated events are conspiring to undermine the Belfast Agreement and make the restoration of the political institutions in Northern Ireland more difficult as we enter the New Year.
These include, inter alia, the publication of the Census figures indicating demographic convergence between Catholics and Protestants, proposed amendments to the Northern Ireland Policing Act, the revelation of republican intelligence-gathering at Stormont, the trial of republicans in Colombia, the breaking-off of IRA contact with the Independent International Decommissioning Body and the Ulster Unionist Party's walk-out from the multi-party talks.
They are all matters eroding the necessary political trust and confidence, making the conditions necessary for the ending of direct rule more difficult in the medium term.
Clearly, both nationalist/republican and unionist factions desire the return of devolved government to Northern Ireland, for vastly different reasons, but none of the parties who signed up to the Agreement are showing the slightest signs of leaving their trenches. They don't appear to be seeing the bigger picture beyond the Assembly elections scheduled for next May.
Politicians would not be natural if they were not positioning themselves for the next outing at the polls. Northern Ireland is no deviation in this respect. Would Mr David Trimble's UUP fare better with the electorate if he were wedded to the Belfast Agreement? Isn't his internal arch-rival, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, shaping up in that direction anyway? Are the moderate elements within the Democratic Unionist Party, led by Mr Peter Robinson, throwing shapes towards the infrastructure of the Agreement? And on the nationalist/republican side, aren't the SDLP and Sinn Féin committed to a continuance of the political institutions which, for the first time, produce a power-sharing, all-inclusive devolved government?
With the on-set of Northern elections within months, it is time to disentangle disparate and disturbing events from the longer-term interest of all. There is no alternative to the Belfast Agreement. It has the support of the electorate in concurrent referendums, North and South. The British and Irish Governments have correctly characterised the only way out of the current impasse. A quantum leap is now required. It must be made before the end of February. But such is the level of distrust between the two communities that there can be no more promises on policing, decommissioning and demilitarisation. There must be acts of completion this time.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion the first obligations rest with Sinn Féin. Republicans must sign up to the police force and demonstrably prove to all other parties that the IRA's war is over. Then, and only then, the political process can be restored.