The military breakthrough, achieved over the weekend by Northern Alliance forces in Afghanistan, opens up a new phase of the war and potentially transforms the US-led campaign against the Taliban administration. It puts the future government of Afghanistan squarely and urgently on the international agenda by raising the possibility that the Northern Alliance could take the capital, Kabul, before agreement has been reached on who should be in that government. Unless this question is rapidly resolved, military action could create a political vacuum which would destabilise the entire region.
The Northern Alliance forces could not have made this breakthrough without the deployment of massive US air power against the Taliban front line in recent days and weeks. There had been some delay for fear that it would be a strategic mistake to give the alliance such an advantage before much more progress had been made in assembling a post-Taliban government representative of all Afghanistan's ethnic and regional groups.
Should the alliance take Kabul without that balance being agreed, Pakistan would not exert its influence over the so-called moderate elements of the Taliban regime to break with its leadership and support an alternative government.
Now the US-led international coalition faces an acute dilemma about how to conduct the political and diplomatic dimensions of the campaign. It will be difficult for the US to rein in the Northern Alliance after these reported victories in the field. And the conspicuous failure to mobilise support against the Taliban in the southern part of the country means military action has outstripped political preparedness. Hence President Bush's weekend appeal to the Northern Alliance forces for military restraint.
His address to the United Nations is a welcome gesture towards the international community by an administration which would still prefer to keep its distance. Increasingly, the European members of the international coalition against terrorism, have come to recognise that UN endorsement of a post-Taliban government will be an indispensable guarantee of its legitimacy. There is an urgent need for increased European pressure to bring such elements together. That must include Iran and Russia as well as Pakistan. It also must involve renewed pressure for an initiative in the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
The other urgent dimension in Afghanistan is the issue of humanitarian aid as winter descends on its mountainous terrain, immobilising millions of people displaced by drought, civil war and, in recent weeks, by the bombing campaign. Securing a base in the northern part of the country through which food and medical supplies can be provided, will be easier after these military successes.
But the most urgent need for aid is elsewhere in Afghanistan, especially in the south. The case for a bombing pause to allow it to be supplied freely, is compelling indeed. This would add greatly to the political legitimacy of the campaign (along with renewed efforts to assemble a post-Taliban coalition) among public opinions increasingly confused about the political objectives of the military campaign. That confusion is increased by this weekend's military developments.