In yesterday's new Cabinet the Taoiseach has strengthened his personal control over events but the Tánaiste remains in a pivotal position, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
The Taoiseach must wonder how many Ministers he would have had to move before his critics would concede the reshuffle was major. The Minister for Finance, the most dominant Cabinet figure for the past seven years, is gone; there are three new Ministers; the State has its first woman Minister for Agriculture; the Tánaiste has chosen what is seen as the most politically difficult of posts; and eight of the 11 Ministers retained have changed jobs.
The sense of anti-climax arises because the biggest move - the departure of Mr McCreevy - has been known for two months. Also Mary Hanafin, Willie O'Dea and Dick Roche may be first-time Ministers but they are hardly new faces. The Government has been promising a new image since its June election defeats, but much of the reshuffle was expected. The changes are substantial, but not many of them came as a surprise.
Nevertheless, there is now scope for considerable change in the internal dynamic within the Cabinet. The personalities who formed the Government's liberal economic axis since 1997 have been scattered.
Charlie McCreevy has gone from Finance to Europe, Mary Harney from Enterprise, Trade and Employment to Health, and Seamus Brennan from Transport to Social, Community and Family Affairs.
These three were most associated with the tax-cutting, deregulating, privatising message that has come from the Government since 1997. Mr McCreevy and Mr Brennan were seen as the PDs within Fianna Fáil, the Ministers who ensured that the liberal economic outlook espoused by the smaller Government party was at the heart of Government, rather than a view espoused by a radical fringe.
This does not necessarily signal a change in the Government's political outlook - the "shift to the left" that was talked about in mid-summer. Mary Harney's move to Health may see her free-market principles bring about a distinctive shift towards private provision of health services. Her replacement in Enterprise, Micheál Martin, is a Fianna Fáil pragmatist, but it is difficult to see what he will do in this Department that is obviously different from what the Tánaiste has done and would do.
And while Seamus Brennan, dismantler of State monopolies, is no longer responsible for the State's airline, airports and roads, his replacement, Martin Cullen, is from the PD family too (although the frosty relationship between him and the Tánaiste sometimes conceals this).
But the reshuffle may affect a substantial change in the internal relationships between Ministers. Mr McCreevy sometimes surprised even the Taoiseach with decisions and proposals. Often backed by Ms Harney and Mr Brennan, Mr McCreevy would produce proposals and drive them through. The three were often seen - not least on the Fianna Fáil backbenches - as a PD-influenced cabal.
Now, however, Brian Cowen, trusted confidant of the Taoiseach, is in Finance. Mr Cowen will be closer to the Taoiseach than to any other Minister, and the two will work closely together in preparing the next two budgets and the strategy for the next general election. Tax changes will no longer focus on cutting tax rates (seen as giving greater benefit to the better off) but on broadening tax bands (seen as favouring the less well-off). In recent months, the Tánaiste herself has said that this is now the priority.
Other moves have further strengthened the Taoiseach's personal control over events. He and Dick Roche worked very closely together before and during the State's EU presidency. He had an equally close working relationship with his chief whip, Mary Hanafin. Yesterday he put these two trusted loyalists into sensitive and important ministries.
The sharpest intake of breath of the day followed the news that Seamus Brennan was to be effectively demoted from Transport to Social, Community and Family Affairs. Transport is a cutting-edge Department, driving development of the State's infrastructure. Social, Community and Family Affairs is not, despite its importance to those who depend on social welfare payments.
Mr Brennan is unhappy with the change, but it could have been worse for him. There were rumours throughout yesterday morning that he was to be dropped altogether, although several well-placed sources have denied this. Mr Brennan's determination to break-up Aer Rianta and introduce competition on Dublin Bus routes had severely antagonised the trade unions during the negotiation of the recent social partnership talks. This, therefore, antagonised the Taoiseach too. An attempt by Mr Brennan to persuade the Taoiseach to give him an economic portfolio failed.
Jim McDaid was the other person demoted who fought for his position. Removed from Cabinet in 2002, the Taoiseach said yesterday that Dr McDaid had resigned as a Minister of State; Dr McDaid said he had been dropped. He too sought to keep his job in a one-to-one meeting with the Taoiseach to retain his post.
There was an outbreak of interested murmuring in the Dáil chamber when the appointment of Ms Mary Coughlan as the State's first Minister for Agriculture was announced. Putting a young, gregarious woman in a job often seen as one for a grey man added an element of freshness to the new line-up.
There were several winners, apart from the three new Ministers. Dermot Ahern moves to one of the most senior posts, Foreign Affairs, in which he has long had an interest.
While Micheál Martin's move to Enterprise and Employment is to a portfolio of no greater importance than his current one, he will be thrilled to end five long years in the politically dreadful Department of Health. He will also be glad to get experience of an economic ministry, seen as useful for potential future leadership contenders.
By choice, Michael McDowell stays put in Justice, while Eamon Ó Cuív stays in the Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs post. John O' Donoghue insisted yesterday he was not disappointed about the fact that he has not been moved to a more important portfolio than his current one of Arts, Sport and Tourism, although many didn't believe this.
The Tánaiste's move to Health is a brave one, accompanied by risk and opportunity. Health service reform plans are now completed, and we are supposed to be on the brink of their implementation. Her opportunity is that she could become the Minister who finally delivers on health service reforms that have been in the planning process for a very long time. The risk is that once again, politically difficult parts of the reform proposals, such as the downgrading of some local hospitals, could run into political objections from within Cabinet or within Fianna Fáil.
Such a major conflict could well come about. If it does, Ms Harney would be the radical Minister seeking to reform the health services but being blocked by elements of Fianna Fáil looking to protect local rather than national interests.
If Ms Harney pushes a reform programme against such opposition, it would be to her party's benefit. PD deputies do not represent constituencies with vulnerable local hospitals, and their voters would tend to side with principled reforming Ministers.
If it came to it, the party would feel comfortable fighting an election if the Government had broken up on such an issue.