Unions bend to power of the public

It's often said that a week is a long time in politics

It's often said that a week is a long time in politics. In regard to the sell-off of the State's silver, it could be said that a decade is a very long time indeed.

Looking at Prime Time on Tuesday night, Drapier was reminded of the ad campaign which was put out by the Communications Workers' Union, during an election, advocating that Telecom be kept in public ownership and out of the hands of the "fat cats". A few short years on, the unions are bending to the power of the public which includes many of their own members.

The attitude of the Irish people has changed dramatically from a time when they were vehemently against selling semi-state companies; now there is little or no objection. Call it what you like, sell-off or strategic alliance, it means the same thing. The unions, like many of their political colleagues in this State, have had to move into the centre in response to the public mood.

Apart from nominal rhetoric on the subject, the unions have turned turtle. There is no way they could have objected to something like the Telecom sell-off, given the fact that over half a million people said that they wished to purchase shares (and obviously sell them on later for a profit).

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It is in this climate that the Irish Congress of Trade Unions is having its conference in Killarney. It comes as no surprise that that usual suspect, ATGWU leader Michael O'Reilly, called a halt to this widespread rot.

Drapier has no doubt that he will be a voice in the wilderness, and while there might be a lot of huffing and puffing by the ICTU, ultimately it will re-enter a social partnership agreement, but perhaps at a higher price.

The next question is what the Government will do with the Telecom proceeds. Some forecasters suggest that the Government will have a surplus of anything from £4 billion to £6 billion at the end of the year, including the Telecom money. Drapier thinks that Charlie McCreevy and the Government are in an even more difficult situation now there is so much money about than in the mid-1980s when the State was near bankruptcy.

The expectations now are so high that we all believe it's just a matter of asking. (Mind you, that wasn't the case with the people with disabilities who protested outside the Dail last week regarding their lack of transport. The Government would appear to date not to have given firm commitments on funding for this group.)

But coming back to the broader picture, Drapier thinks that the real mettle of Charlie McCreevy as Minister for Finance will be tested in the challenge of dealing with the riches. His reputation as a financial hardliner is on the line in this one.

The fact is this Government, along with previous governments, has been benefiting from ever-improving economic conditions but now Drapier feels we are at a crossroads and unless medium to long-term planning is put in place, this Government and Charlie McCreevy in particular will be accused of being spendthrift in a populist way.

One of the questions on people's lips on Wednesday was who won the share price battle, Mary O'Rourke or Charlie McCreevy. There had been much speculation last weekend as to who would win - Mary wanted a low price, Charlie a higher one. It seems as if McCreevy had the upper hand on this one.

Now that the "best chance for peace" has been digested by all, the two governments have been adopting a two-pronged approach. Tony Blair, on the one hand, is pressurising the unionists while, on the other, Bertie Ahern and John Hume are leaning on republicans. It remains to be seen if this works, though Drapier feels that for once the unionists have been backed into a corner. They know full well that they cannot be seen to continue to say no, given that Blair's government is strong in Westminster. They know they will be blamed on both sides of the Irish Sea if this goes wrong.

Although it's not usual for Drapier, he feels that credit must be given to the negotiating strategy of Sinn Fein which, bit by bit, showed its hand which ultimately left it in a win-win situation.

At long last, the long-awaited appearance of Ray Burke at the tribunal happened this week. Burke looked in surprisingly good form, and indeed Drapier thought (unless the camera deceived) that he had put on a bit of weight since the last time we saw him in Leinster House, when he had visibly faded away in front of our eyes in the last few trying weeks in his ministerial tenure. Drapier wasn't a bit surprised that his appearance on Tuesday was aborted following objections, many of which were grounded in the rationale behind Liam Lawlor's victorious challenge against the tribunal.

By following that decision, the pendulum has swung back in favour of natural justice and Drapier has no doubt that most of the witnesses to come will cling jealously to the implications of the judgment. This will lead to an even more protracted tribunal, something which even the Opposition does not relish. Drapier feels that Bertie Ahern must be ruing the day he set up this tribunal, in that it has the potential for going on and on forever (or at least until the eve of the next general election).

Burke's evidence on Wednesday about the money flowing in made Drapier wonder if this was the norm as Burke had stated. It certainly was not the case for Drapier, either in 1989 or since then. Nor was it the norm for the vast majority of public representatives: Burke used the word "unfortunately" when he referred to Gogarty's visit to his house. Drapier can appreciate why he might refer to the visit now as unfortunate but no doubt he was very pleased with the sub in 1989.

The political ramifications of Burke's evidence will be much clearer in the days to come but he gave a reasonably good account of himself and he concentrated on trying to clear his name, rather than drop any bombshells designed to embarrass Bertie Ahern.

The appointment of David Byrne as EU Commissioner came as a bolt out of the blue, not only for most of us, but it must have been a huge let-down for Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, who had been the hot favourite up to the last minute: indeed, she had been touted by well-informed sources as a sure-fire certainty. She must be very sore at how her name was bandied about, though she could have come out early on and denied interest in the position. Drapier can foresee sparks in the Dail any time Bertie and Co hide behind the Attorney General's advice.

The appointment of Michael McDowell as AG has the potential for plenty of sport for the Opposition. Indeed RTE chose archive footage well on the day of his appointment: they picked what Michael had to say about Cabinet confidentiality and how it could be relaxed. No doubt this and other musings of McDowell will be played and replayed back to him.

Drapier thinks McDowell should have kept an eye on the future when he was so outspoken in earlier years. At the end of the day the same consideration came into play in Byrne's appointment as was prevalent in FF's choice of a presidential candidate, that is, avoid a by-election at all costs.