The collapse of the deal reached on immigration reform between Republican and Democrat leaders in the US Senate last week is a major blow for hopes that it could resolve the issue. The Senate has adjourned for a two-week recess and it could be months before immigration returns to the agenda. Some senators believe it is unlikely that any reform will be agreed this year - although rallies today in 69 centres throughout the country are expected to reach unprecedented levels of mobilisation and public engagement. More than 20,000 Irish illegal immigrants are caught up in the issue.
This has been one of the most contentious questions in US politics for a long time. It has pitched right-wing concerns about border security, resentment over illegal immigration and anger about an amnesty, against the economic need for workers, the passionate desire of 11 million immigrants to be allowed to earn citizenship and the integrity of the US record as an immigrant society which welcomes continuous renewal.
The proposed reform would be the most comprehensive immigration law for two decades, during which time huge numbers of people have found work and tried to settle permanently. Their pressure and resistance to it are the essential backdrop to the collapse of the deal so soon after it was announced.
Three categories of immigrants are identified in the Senate compromise, divided by the length of their residence. An estimated seven million illegal immigrants who have been there for more than five years would be allowed to stay and earn citizenship if they pay a fine, settle back taxes, learn English, undergo a criminal background check and stay in work for 11 years before becoming citizens. Those with between two and five years residence would have to meet more stringent conditions and those under two years would have to return home and apply to enter through normal channels. It is a rough and ready compromise which makes much sense and has been widely welcomed, including by the very active Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform.
Most of the immigrants are from Central and South America, and they have a great deal of sympathy and influence with the already powerful Hispanic lobby, which plays a growing political role in the US. Divisions have run deep in the Republican party between those willing to adjust to this change and those who resent and resist it. President Bush has limited himself to supporting new legislation while avoiding these Republican divisions. He must now decide whether to back this deal or risk presiding over a deeper polarisation of opinion.