Mr Lee Teng-hui's decisive victory in the Taiwanese presidential elections is a landmark in its history and in the wider Chinese and Asian communities of which it forms a part. This was the island's first democratic presidential election. It was conducted in the teeth of mounting political hostility from China, culminating in the military exercises of recent weeks' which, have provoked the biggest Us naval manoeuvres in the region since the end of the Vietnam war. It, will take some considerable time to determine the extent of the damage this escalation of tension has done to Chinese Taiwanese relations at the level of political leaderships and the individual citizen. Ever since President Lee's visit to the US last year the Chinese government has been determined to confront the prospect of a Taiwan that is becoming more independent because more democratic. The blame should not all be attached to one side.
Increasing demands for international recognition of Taiwan, specifically the demand for a UN seat, undermined the dialogue that might have developed between the island's government and President Jiang Zemin of China, who offered a package of proposals for political dialogue and reconciliation last year. Developments since then have made it far more difficult to repair these relations; perhaps, indeed, given the determination of the Taiwanese to reach international status commensurate with their wealth and political development, it is foolish to expect that this could be done easily. The elections, combined with Chinese pressure, have probably done a great deal to convince younger Taiwanese to resist any rapid unification with the mainland.
There is reported to be a sea change in attitudes as a result of the confrontation. In a convergence of policy the main parties support a pragmatic effort to secure international recognition, to bolster Taiwanese defences and to consolidate their new democratic system. It will be difficult for the Chinese to back away from the confrontational stance they have adopted, especially given the US naval and political involvement, although the conciliatory remarks from both sides yesterday bode well. It is important that they be given the opportunity to do so by a reduction of pressure from the US side. A cautious approach is being urged on both parties by many other Asian states, after the sudden realisation that any Chinese military move against Taiwan would be disastrous for regional economic prosperity and for China's own opening up to the world.