The growing incidence of paramilitary-style "punishment" beatings and shootings in Northern Ireland must be a source of serious concern to all those who cherish democratic values and the rule of law. Statistics made available to this newspaper by the RUC indicate a 40 per cent increase in "punishment" shootings for the first five months of this year and a 30 per cent rise in the number of beatings. Blame for the shootings has been apportioned between loyalist and republican paramilitaries at a ratio of two to one. The incidence of gun attacks is higher than at any time since 1975.
These are disturbing figures. Rising levels of vigilantism threaten the prospects of establishing an equitable, civilised society. At a time when deep-seated disagreement exists between the political parties over the form of a new Police Service for Northern Ireland and the powers of a Policing Board, paramilitary organisations may have embarked upon a deliberate policy of intimidation and control within their areas. The Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, has rejected this suggestion and criticised the attacks. At the same time, however, he admitted his party could lose votes in the Westminster and local elections because the people of West Belfast believed Sinn Fein wasn't doing enough to combat anti-social behaviour. In the Dail, this week, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, condemned punishment shootings and beatings as "barbaric" and said they could not be excused. They reflected a move towards gangsterism, banditry and drug-related crime, he indicated, and that was why there was a need for a successful police recruitment campaign involving unionists and nationalists, republicans and loyalists. He regarded policing as the key issue to be resolved in the talks between the pro-Agreement parties and the Irish and British Governments that will get under way immediately after the elections on June 7th. The question of arms decommissioning will also have to be resolved before the end of that month along with demilitarisation and issues touching on the stability of institutions established under the Belfast Agreement.
Gun attacks and beatings are not all in response to anti-social behaviour by out-of-control young people. Some are connected with turf wars and the control of local communities. Others are about drug dealing, extortion and the breaking of rules of loyalist organisations. The Ulster Unionist Party leader and First Minister, Mr David Trimble, has been critical of this mafia-style behaviour. And he called on the North's Human Rights Commission to examine the human rights abuses being perpetrated on their own communities by paramilitary groups.
Positive news from the North came in the shape of an opinion poll conducted by the Belfast Telegraph which found that support for the Belfast Agreement amongst Protestants had risen from 47 to 61 per cent in seven months. At the same time, support for the Agreement within both communities rose to 66 per cent, with only 20 per cent opposed. In spite of such support, however, confidence that a lasting peace can be achieved is waning. Three years of entrenched disagreement and failure to resolve key issues has resulted in only 33 per cent of respondents being "very or fairly confident" that a lasting peace can be secured - a 22 point fall over that period. The messages are clear for the pro-Agreement leaders. The public has come to support the Agreement and the devolution experience because of the practical benefits it has brought to Northern Ireland. They worry that a failure of courage and commitment could put the prize of peace at risk. Successful negotiations between the parties after the elections would transform the political landscape in Northern Ireland and set the scene for a normalisation of policing.