Do you remember the rural crime wave. The endless stories last year of pensioners cowering in their homes as marauding gangs terrorised the countryside.
It seems that it is now over.
The latest crime figures, released by the CSO this week, show a massive fall in burglaries and thefts across the country. They are down 26 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.
It’s great news. But how was this amazing turnaround achieved.
Did we reopen the 95 Garda stations closed in 2013 in a move that left rural Ireland at the mercy of the criminals, according to politicians of every stripe?
Were Garda numbers increased from 12,000 to the 18,000 that the Garda Representative Association believes is the minimum required to keep the streets safe?
Were the bail laws overhauled to prevent people charged with serious offences being able to continue to roam the countryside in search of victims?
Did we agree new tougher sentencing laws to stop the “revolving door” system that sees criminals released to reoffend after short periods in jail?
The answer to all these questions is no. But what we did do is create some jobs.
Fundamental link
The fundamental link between employment levels and crime is the inconvenient truth in the Irish crime debate. Its existence cannot be denied. But it is always ignored.
Economists have always argued that crime and economic activity are inextricably linked. They hold that a life of crime is a rational alternative to working for a living when you can’t get a job. At its heart is the maxim that we would all steal to feed our children if necessary.
Proponents of the theory have even gone so far as to quantify the relationship. As study by the University of Michigan found that an increase of 1,000 in the numbers on the dole in a particular county or Garda district led to an extra 50 break-ins and thefts.
The relationship held true across the country, according to the study which looked at regional employment data and corresponding regional crime data during 2003 to 2014 .
The existence of this link is more than borne out by this week’s figures. The number of burglaries and related offences committed between April and June this year was 21,265, down 26 per cent on the same period last year.
Similarly, the number of thefts fell by 12 per cent to 9,703. All other categories of crime were down except for sexual offences, attempted murder and dangerous acts. Crime fell across all the Garda districts, including those with large rural populations.
The other side of the equation was equally positive. The number of people signing on the dole in May this year was 307,059, down 11 per cent on May 2015. Employment rose across the country.
We have found the cure for crime – it’s called jobs. None of this should come as any surprise and should be welcomed.But it isn’t.
The Garda don’t seem all that keen on on the idea. But then again there is not much to be gained by saying: “We kept on doing our difficult job to the best of our abilities in this relatively crime-free country and the improving economic circumstances have led to the expected fall in crime.”
It doesn’t really strengthen the hand of Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan when she goes looking for more money.
Neither does it generate much public sympathy for the strikes being planned by the Garda.
The notion of a thin blue line holding back anarchy is much more likely to garner public support.
The clear link between jobs and crime is not good news for the countless local and national politicians currently on the ‘reopening Garda stations’ bandwagon.
You are not going to win very many votes telling people that the Government’s job creation policy is the best guarantee that they will be safe in their beds.
Fear and fascination
And it is certainly not welcomed by those sections of the media which feed deeply off the public’s fear and fascination with crime.
It is hard to get up the same head of steam about the creation of 20 jobs in Ballinrobe as it is fulminating against revolving door sentencing, crazy bail laws and anybody who might be deemed as soft on crime.
The fact that those jobs will do more to permanently reduce crime than armed gardaí whizzing around in fast patrol cars is neither here not there.
It is much better for all concerned to agree that a major clampdown on prolific burglary gangs is deemed responsible for the huge fall in the number of crimes.
The details of the clampdown must no doubt be kept under wraps for operational reasons.