Nobody will doubt the anguish of Dr Mo Mowlam as she faced the media yesterday, explaining the reasons the Portadown Orangemen were to be allowed to march the Garvaghy Road. Nor could anyone fail to recognise in the strained face and in the body-language of Mr Ronnie Flanagan the dilemma of a police chief who knew that whatever course was taken the probability of violence was high. The Secretary of State and the Chief Constable are entitled to have their good faith acknowledged. They took their decision based on the calculation of saving lives.
Time will tell whether that calculation was well-grounded. There was no loss of life on the Garvaghy Road. The security forces appear to have discharged their task with no more force than was necessary although the film footage of clashes with the residents and the handling of SDLP Councillor, Brid Rodgers, will redound against the police. The short-term aim of preserving life and limb has been secured - and no public official, elected or appointed, can by-pass that imperative. But what of the longer- term implications of a decision which backed might over right?
It has been something of a truism that there would be no winners this year after Drumcree. Not so. The Provisional IRA has had its best day since last July. It requires no great leap of imagination to appreciate the value this morning of the Provisionals' sales-patter in the Catholic areas throughout Northern Ireland; compromise is impossible, security and strength lie in the gun, the British will always capitulate to Orange bullying. Who would wish to have the task of trying to raise new members for the SDLP over the coming weeks?
The hard men of the loyal lodges, for their part, believe that they are winners after yesterday. It would be possible to persuade otherwise certain people whose sense of political self-expression is defined by marking out street corners and lampposts. There must be sympathy and appreciation for the great majority of the unionist population indeed, for the majority of loyal members who believe that traditional worship should not be used, as it was used yesterday on the Garvaghy Road, to keep those of a different tribe in their place.
To predict that the coming days and weeks will be tense is dramatically to understate the situation. It will be a difficult time for the security forces and it will also be a crucially testing period for the politicians. They have it within their capacity to worsen greatly an already bad situation through careless words or through attempts to make capital out of it. Those who hold the middle ground carry grave responsibilities, both on the nationalist and the unionist sides. What little is left of the peace process could come crashing down if those in the middle fail to hold together. Sinn Fein representatives, it goes without saying, have a particular onus to control and moderate the anger which is being felt throughout the nationalist communities.
It is now vital for the two governments to ensure they move in unison. These events represent the first test of co-operation between two new administrations with new premiers, new ministers and new working relationships. There is a view in Dublin that Dr Mowlam's contradictory signals one march brought about the worst of all worlds - nationalist anger reinforced with a sense of betrayal. Conversely, the British regard the Taoiseach's intervention during the week as having narrowed their field of choice. There may be substance in both positions.