'France is bored.' So wrote a prominent commentator in Paris in 1848. The stability of King Louis Philippe's 18-year-old monarchy seemed a welcome respite after 60 years of revolutions and coups.
But Louis Philippe's regime had produced a false stability and stupefying boredom which within months produced that most traditional of French reactions: revolution.
Louis Philippe's fall might seem irrelevant to modern Irish politics. Not so. Others too had dramatic falls from power, even if less revolutionary; WT Cosgrave in 1932; Eamon de Valera in 1948; the British Conservatives in 1964 and 1997. All had a similar theme: a bored electorate so fed up of the status quo that they would do the unthinkable and sack a long-serving government.
For Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney's Fianna Fáil-PD Government there were worrying signs in 2005 that they had breached the electorate's boredom threshold.
An example occurred when they launched their transport plan during the year. As Irish Government (and Opposition) plans go it was pretty much a standard mixture of some facts and a lot of hype, spin, exaggeration and promises. Whatever real use much of it would actually be was debatable, but that was never its primary aim: like all other plans, it was intended to boost the Government, to show that they were in charge, knew what they were doing and where they were going.
The normal reaction would be simple: supporters would praise it. Opponents would slate it. The media would analyse it (and then usually slate it). But this time the plan just died.
Neither the media nor the public bothered with it much and after a short debate the entire country turned the page. While some media reports claimed the non-reaction was blamed by the Taoiseach on his accident-prone Minister for Transport Martin Cullen, (having masterminded the fiasco of electronic voting Cullen was hardly likely to have his next "big idea" taken seriously), a more worrying question exists: was the non-reaction because of Cullen or because of the Government? For even the widely praised Budget, from the widely respected Brian Cowen, barely made an impression before being forgotten about.
For anyone in politics, public indifference is even worse than being unpopular. Unpopularity at least means there is an emotional reaction out there, one which may be challenged, reversed or at least used tactically in an election (ie, convince the electorate that the opposition would be even worse). But indifference and public boredom often means you have lost the public's attention and respect. And once you lose that it is exceptionally difficult to get it back. No amount of spinning, new policies, new personalities and new promises can overcome it if the electorate have decided they are now going to ignore you. To make it worse, public indifference has a habit of even spreading to one's own supporters who then don't come out and vote. A classic case occurred with Fine Gael in the 1990s. It chose the wrong leader (Alan Dukes). He followed the wrong policies. He was then ditched and his replacement, John Bruton couldn't get the momentum right. Suddenly Fine Gael found itself being overshadowed by Dick Spring and Labour, by the Northern Ireland peace process, by the popularity of Bertie. It had a blip when, practically by accident, it fell into government in 1994.
Fine Gael and Bruton suddenly became relevant again. But out of government Fine Gael again found itself blanked by voters, all too many of whom changed channel or went to look at the sports pages at the mere mention of the party. By 2002 even the rank-and-file were indifferent. The result was the near political massacre of the party in the general election.
Fine Gael tried desperately to win back the public's interest with no success. It took their electoral "near death" experience in the election to bring them back into the public eye.
Even then it has been a long, hard slog for Enda Kenny, but now, dangerously for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael are showing signs of a steady climb in voter interest. And the Tories are only now, after eight years in opposition and four changes of leaders, beginning to be taken seriously again by voters in Britain.
The problem with public boredom is that often nothing that you can do will change it. The Cabinet has many well performing Ministers: Mary Coughlan, Mary Hanafin and Brian Cowen have all impressed.
Dermot Ahern is competent in Foreign Affairs, while Séamus Brennan seems to have been a revelation in Social and Family Affairs.
But Michael McDowell's inability to walk past a political sleeping dog without giving it a kick is just irritating voters at this stage.
The ultimate nightmare for Bertie would be if, as with Louis Philippe in 1848, WT Cosgrave in 1932, Eamon de Valera in 1948 and John Major in 1997, the public was to turn around at the next election and say "we've had enough. You are just boring us now. We'll give someone else - anyone else - a shot". Bertie has 18 months left to turn that indifference into interest again. It could be the hardest battle of his political life.