Why shouldn't Bertie serve a third term?

Louis XIV, according to the memoirs of Saint-Simon, complained that, when he created a duke, he made one man happy and 10 men…

Louis XIV, according to the memoirs of Saint-Simon, complained that, when he created a duke, he made one man happy and 10 men unhappy, writes Martin Mansergh.

If one substitutes appointing a minister, every Taoiseach can recognise with feeling his own situation. Public office is a vocation to which many are called, but few are chosen.

In the past, ministerial offices, even in a single-party government, were about a third of the (Dáil) parliamentary party. Noticeably, when Charles Haughey and Albert Reynolds were elected leader, it was with the support of the ministerial have-nots rather than the office holders.

Today, with the number of Oireachtas committees and their chairmen remunerated and more in the public eye, those holding some office comprise half the Dáil party, thus strengthening party cohesion.

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Being chosen as one of the 226 members of the Oireachtas is a huge privilege and responsibility and there are many ways of being useful and exercising an influence on behalf of nation and constituency.

Commentators often unfairly attribute to politicians the cynical attitude that it is only worth being in politics for senior ministerial office.

The Seanad, without ministerial office-holders, is de facto a purely legislative chamber, where that consideration cannot be said to apply.

No US congressmen or senators are executive office-holders. Being a parliamentarian is an honourable and worthwhile profession in itself.

The value of work done does not depend on constant media attention, pace Berkeley's maxim esse est percipi (to be is to be perceived).

Ambitious politicians know that there is potentially a high risk to conducting a subterranean campaign against the leadership, which is why they mostly keep their disappointments to themselves.

Apart from personal consequences, visible faction-fighting can be damaging and destabilising to the long-term interests of a party. Both main British parties and the German social democrats after 1982 made themselves unelectable for long periods. The Liberals virtually destroyed themselves between Asquith and Lloyd George.

Sections of the British Labour Party are seething with anger at Tony Blair, especially - but not only - over Iraq. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, long impatient to take the reins, has nonetheless sought to exercise a calming influence, knowing that an outbreak of internal warfare would be disastrous with an election next May.

Compared to the Lynch, Haughey and Reynolds years, factionalism in Fianna Fáil has been running at a low level under Bertie Ahern.

While there are always currents flowing in any party, those who forecast turbulence have little supporting evidence. That does not mean the embers will not be vigorously poked to see if flare-ups can be produced.

The PDs, unlike Labour in 1994, held their nerve in coalition with Fianna Fáil, and were rewarded by a doubling rather than a halving of their seats. That they will jump ship to give badly-needed credibility and numbers to a projected Fine Gael, Labour and Green Rainbow coalition, in which their influence would be diluted, would suggest a preference for being in office rather than in power, which their track-record to date does not support.

If the British can give Tony Blair a third term and the Australians, John Howard a fourth, why is it implausible that Bertie Ahern, the most politically successful Taoiseach in modern times, might earn a third term, notwithstanding mid-term setbacks, without reliance on Sinn Féin compatibility?

The reshuffle would have pleased those whose main interest is not relative party fortunes but the steady progress of a country still enjoying a great run of good fortune. Brian Cowen will be a rock-solid Minister for Finance.

Close observers will have noted with approval his initial statement, that, if he were to allow a spending spree, he would unleash inflationary forces again.

People admire Mary Harney's courage in opting for health, the greatest political challenge of all. Dermot Ahern, who was involved in the peace process at its inception in 1988, and was a highly regarded co-chairman of the British-Irish Interparliamentary Body, is well-equipped for the Northern Ireland role.

Mary Coughlan is a popular choice in agriculture. Her appointment is a long overdue recognition of all that Irish women have contributed to agriculture.

Séamus Brennan made his mark in transport, and saw a 20-year ambition of restoring the Harcourt Street line (as a Luas line) realised.

The penalty points system is a step forward in road safety. After health perhaps, he confronts the biggest political challenge facing the Government, alleviating poverty and reducing inequality, without impairing Ireland's hard-won position as a strong economy.

The education sector is looking forward to Mary Hanafin's ministerial tenure. Dick Roche, as a former civil servant and lecturer on public administration, will be a formidable Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. The south-east, which has fallen behind in terms of national income, will look to Martin Cullen, strategically placed in transport, to redress the balance.

Ministers O'Donoghue, McDowell and Ó Cuív remain in departments, where they have important plans to implement. The gritty integrity of Noel Dempsey has been retained in communications. The Defence Forces will find in Willie O'Dea a doughty champion. Deputies will watch with amusement how Tom Kitt succeeds in making himself less amiable to fulfil the role of chief whip.

Whatever about the ODA target of 0.7 per cent of GNP being difficult to achieve by 2007, it is vital for the good faith of this country that substantial further progress in raising Ireland's development assistance is made. Conor Lenihan must, with help, fight his corner.

There is no substitute for governing well in the long-term interest of the country over the next two to three years, as the best recommendation to an electorate which may otherwise be tempted to risk a change.