Why unionist parties face consolidation

The days of Sir Reg Empey and Peter Robinson as party leaders look numbered

FOR A fleeting moment it looked as if some of Northern Ireland’s MPs would play a part in the government-formation shenanigans.

That moment has passed and the impact of the Northern Ireland contingent will be more confined.

A week later, it is worth looking back at the Northern Ireland results from a distance – geographic and temporal. I am helped by access to the results data generated by RTÉ for its coverage. The 30-page report contains detailed party and candidate breakdowns for all 18 constituencies as well as the swings since the 2005 Westminster and the 2007 Assembly elections.

The most striking movement in party terms was the 9 per cent fall in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) vote since 2005. It was outpolled Northern Ireland-wide by Sinn Féin by almost 4,000 votes. One has to look down the columns to understand where the DUP vote went. Cumulatively the data suggests about half of it went to the Traditional Unionist Voice, which polled 4 per cent overall.

Shifts to the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) cannot account for any of the DUP loss because it lost 2.5 per cent of its vote. The Alliance Party benefited from the DUP vote collapse in East Belfast. The Alliance vote was up 2.5 per cent overall, but elsewhere that gain was at the expense of the UUP rather than the DUP.

Turnout was down 5 per cent and while there is no hard data to indicate why voters failed to go to the polls, analysts closer to the ground in Northern Ireland point to a stay-at-home factor among unionist voters, and DUP voters in particular. Another explanation for some of the drop in DUP support was its decision to sit out the contest in Fermanagh/South Tyrone to make way for the unity unionist Independent Rodney Connor. The DUP polled more than 14,000 votes there in 2005.

Of course, the most significant figure in the data was the 19.6 per cent drop in DUP support in East Belfast. Almost nobody had foreseen that Peter Robinson could lose his Westminster seat and that it would be to the Alliance’s Naomi Long. Those of us who have watched Long’s career long distance have been impressed by her incredibly effective media performances. Long’s strength alone cannot, however, explain the scale of Robinson’s collapse.

Some feel that recent controversies about his garden and his marriage caused his electoral difficulties, but calmer Northern Ireland commentators agree with the conclusion Fionnuala O Connor drew here this week that it was the Westminster expenses scandal rather than more localised or personalised controversies that caused East Belfast voters to turn on their sitting MP.

In so doing, East Belfast was no different from many other constituencies across the UK where the expenses revelations led to “swish” incumbents not recontesting or being roundly defeated.

In the case of the Robinson brand the expenses scandal came in stereo because Peter and Iris were one of three married couples at Westminster involved. More controversially one could suggest this means it was the work of London-based Daily Telegraphjournalists "what done it" for Peter Robinson rather than anything emanating from Northern Ireland newsrooms or editing suites.

The fact that Jim Shannon comfortably held Iris Robinson’s seat in Strangford offers some support to the contention that if Peter had not stood, the DUP might actually have held the seat.

The summary statistics show Sinn Féin’s vote nudged up 1.2 per cent. However, the constituency details show the Sinn Féin achievement to be particularly impressive in the circumstances. Sinn Féin held four of its five Westminster seats very comfortably and even managed to hold on to Michelle Gildernew’s seat against a strong unified unionist campaign, albeit by only four votes.

Gerry Adams secured an incredible vote in West Belfast. More than seven of every 10 voters put an X opposite his name, revealing a strong hold on his constituency base the likes of which we have never seen on this island. The grip Willie O’Dea has in Limerick city or Bertie Ahern once had in Dublin Central doesn’t come close.

The SDLP vote also nudged up 1 per cent, but again this figure understates its success. Not only did Mark Durkan comfortably hold his seat in Foyle, but the party also managed a comfortable succession from Eddie McGrady to Margaret Ritchie in South Down and, against all the odds, Alasdair McDonnell held South Belfast.

The real losers on the night were the Ulster Unionists, renamed for this election as the United Conservative and Unionist New Force. Its vote fell a further 2.6 per cent on its very bad Westminster election in 2005. Its much-hyped link up with the Conservatives was soundly rejected by the electorate. To those of us looking on, it was an insane idea. British political considerations have never played in Northern Ireland and it was always going to lead to Sylvia Hermon, Alan McFarland and others walking away.

The most immediate consequence of the election will be the resignation of Reg Empey, who may even be gone before you read this. It could also in time precipitate the resignation of Peter Robinson as DUP leader. It will almost certainly bring about a consolidation of the unionist parties before next year’s Assembly elections and maybe even sooner.